314
FXUS65 KREV 070727
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1227 AM PDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES WARM UP TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES.
* WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
* A COOLER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SOME
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNT UNCERTAINTY.
DISCUSSION
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEK. SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. WE'LL SEE THE
LOW TEMPS INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY, AS WELL AS AFTERNOON
HIGHS. WE PEAK ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70'S ACROSS LOWER VALLEYS
AND NEAR 70 IN THE SIERRA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY THIS
WEEK, GIVING US THESE WARMER AUTUMN DAYS. LIGHT WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TODAY OUT OF THE EAST BEFORE THEY INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.
ONCE THURSDAY COMES, TEMPERATURES START TO SLIDE A LITTLE BIT BUT WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT STAYING SUNNY AND DRY. WE'LL BE ON THE EDGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT CLIPS OUR
CWA. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH US ON FRIDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPS,
GUSTY WINDS, AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP IS STILL UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT, BUT MOST ENSEMBLES AND SOME DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT
MOVING IN SOMETIME FRIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AS OF RIGHT
NOW. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM 0.1-0.3" ALONG THE SIERRA
FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD. THE GFS IVT PLUME HAS A HINT OF SOME MOISTURE
OVER THE PACIFIC ARRIVING IN 4-5 DAYS, AND THE EC EFI DOESN'T SHOW
ANYTHING CONSIDERABLE FOR QPF THIS WEEKEND. SO OVERALL THIS STORM IS
NOT LOOKING LIKE ANYTHING TOO STRONG AS OF RIGHT NOW. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WHERE WE COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE SIERRA
NORTH OF TAHOE. RIGHT NOW WINDS LOOK TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
AGAIN, STILL A LOT TO SOLIDIFY IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. BUT
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER, WHERE WE ARE CONFIDENT IS THAT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME FORM OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY, WITH FZFG NEAR TRK THIS MORNING
BETWEEN 11Z-17Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AHEAD
OF A COOLER PACIFIC SYSTEM ARRIVING FRIDAY.
-JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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