494
FXUS65 KREV 192034
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
134 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY WINDS MAY INDUCE TRAVEL AND RECREATION IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
* DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
* THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER STORM TO
IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY,
BRINGING US INCREASED WINDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH WILL BE SEEN FROM PYRAMID LAKE NORTHWARD TO THE OR/NV BORDER,
OTHERWISE UP TO 25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 5 PM
THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT.
STARTING MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ONCE AGAIN, KEEPING OUR AREA
MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE AN EXCEPTION TO
THAT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A CUT-OFF LOW PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
LOW WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA IN MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW THEY DON'T LOOK TOO INTENSE, JUST SOME
ISOLATED NUISANCE RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE, AROUND 70 ACROSS WESTERN NV AND MID 60'S IN SIERRA
COMMUNITIES.
NOW THAT IT'S COMING CLOSER INTO VIEW, THERE'S AN INCREASINGLY
LIKELY CHANCE FOR OUR FIRST IMPACTFUL ATMOSPHERIC RIVER STORM
THIS FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN PUSHING THE START TIME OF THE
EVENT A LITTLE SOONER TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT I FULLY EXPECT THAT
TO CHANGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WE DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FACT THAT THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS FRI - SUN, BUT THE TIMING OF
THEM AND INTENSITY ARE STILL TBD. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -7C TO -8C SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM THE TAHOE
BASIN NORTHWARD, WHICH TRANSLATES TO SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND
6000FT. PRELIMINARY NBM SNOW AMOUNTS ARE SHOWING UP TO 12 INCHES
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND A TRACE TO 6 INCHES FROM 7000 FT AND
BELOW. BUT AGAIN, IT'S HARD TO SOLIDIFY ANYTHING THIS FAR OUT.
WE'LL MONITOR THIS STORM AS TIME PROGRESSES, BUT IF YOU HAVE ANY
OUTDOOR PLANS OR TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY OVER SIERRA
PASSES, PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST THIS WEEK AND PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND LLWS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS TODAY
FOR TERMINALS IN THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. WESTERLY
GUSTS UP TO 30KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE SAME TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z,
THEN WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
RETURN MONDAY.
-JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002-004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ072.
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