718
FXUS65 KREV 202136
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
236 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON WEDNESDAY.
* AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT MAY BRING PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS,
VALLEY RAIN, AND HEAVY SIERRA SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
DISCUSSION
* WITH RIDGING ALOFT, WE CAN EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY, WARM WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALL WEEK, WITH MOSTLY LOW TO
MID 70S FOR WESTERN NV AND EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY. MEANWHILE, LOW
TO MID-60S WILL BE COMMON FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA COMMUNITIES.
THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN THIS WEEK WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MOVING INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE A 40-50% CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 9,500'. AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINOR, WITH BETWEEN 0.10-0.30" OF LIQUID AND UP TO 1-2"
OF SNOW.
* WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION, POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE POSSIBLE RANGE OF OUTCOMES VARY FROM
MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAIN IN THE SIERRA TO LESS THAN HALF OF THAT
AMOUNT. CURRENT GUIDANCE DOES FAVOR AREAS NORTH OF US-50 WITH A
>60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.25". MODELS/BLENDED GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWS A SHARP PRECIPITATION TO NO PRECIPITATION GRADIENT AROUND
MONO/ALPINE COUNTIES. WE COULD HAVE SPILLOVER PRECIPITATION IN
WESTERN NV OR JUST WIND. SNOW IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO SNOW
LEVELS AND AMOUNTS VARY FROM SEVERAL INCHES, TO MULTIPLE FEET.
BOTTOM LINE, THERE IS A STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, INCREASING WINDS, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. -MCKELLAR
AVIATION
* FZFG MAY DEVELOP AT KTRK BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING,
LOWERING CIGS/VIS TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT BREEZES PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. -MCKELLAR
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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