568
FXUS65 KREV 212136
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
236 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF US-50 WEDNESDAY.
* A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SYSTEM BRING PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS,
VALLEY RAIN, AND HIGH ELEVATION SIERRA SNOW LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
DISCUSSION
* FOR TOMORROW, A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY AT 31N/126W WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CA COAST BY THE MORNING, AND THEN SOUTHERN
NV BY THE LATE EVENING. THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE TO THE NEAR-TERM
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS THAT THE HREF/CAMS ARE
SHOWING CHANCES (20-40%) FOR SHOWERS FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE
TAHOE BASIN AND NORTHEAST CA. PRECIPITATION IS STILL LIKELY FOR
THE EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF US-50 INTO MONO COUNTY, WITH 20-40%
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MINERAL COUNTY. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT,
GENERALLY 0.10-0.25" OF LIQUID AND 1-2" OF SNOW ABOVE 10,000'.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL REMAIN 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH OVERALL LIGHT WINDS.
* ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEEKEND AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US. AT THIS TIME, MODEL ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH, PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE STAYED
SIMILAR TO PRIOR GUIDANCE. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST
1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN
SIERRA, AND ABOUT A 25% CHANCE IN MONO COUNTY. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE FOR A COLDER, WETTER, AND WINDIER WEEKEND, BUT DETAILS
INTO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOWFALL IS STILL LOW. TRAVELERS
SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS CLOSELY IF CROSSING THE SIERRA FROM
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS
WEEKEND, WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ARE
BECOMING LIKELY (>60%). THESE WINDS COULD IMPACT OUTDOOR PLANS,
AVIATION, AND ROAD TRAVEL PARTICULARLY FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES
DUE TO CROSSWIND HAZARDS. -MCKELLAR
AVIATION
* THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AT KMMH ON WEDNESDAY,
PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
PRECIPITATION. THIS DECREASES TO 20% CHANCE AT KTVL/KTRK.
* FZFG MAY DEVELOP AT KTRK THROUGH 16Z THIS MORNING, LOWERING
CIGS/VIS TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT BREEZES PREVAIL. -MCKELLAR
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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