596
FXUS65 KREV 220813
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
113 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTH OF US-50 TODAY.
* A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS, RAIN, AND HIGH ELEVATION SIERRA SNOW EARLY SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
* TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 15-20 DEGREES BY SUNDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW WILL PROVIDE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTH OF US-50. MONO COUNTY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 50-70% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
GENERALLY 0.10-0.25" OF LIQUID AND 1-2" OF SNOW ABOVE 10,000 FEET.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (20-30% CHANCES) WILL ALSO FAVOR
PORTIONS OF ALPINE, MONO, AND WESTERN MINERAL COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THURSDAY.
THIS WEEKEND (WEAK-MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER STORM):
* WHILE THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THIS STORM HAS
DECREASED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, WIND AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL MAY
STILL PRESENT SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
* SATURDAY IS LOOKING TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION AND WINDS. HOWEVER, SNOW LEVELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED
HIGHER SATURDAY (8000-8500') AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS MAY LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
A SLUSHY 1-3 INCHES ALONG HIGHER SIERRA PASSES (ABOVE 8500').
* MOST ELEVATIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS MAINLY A RAIN EVENT WITH
0.50-1.00" OF RAINFALL FROM THE TAHOE BASIN INTO LASSEN COUNTY.
SPILLOVER RAINFALL INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA IS GENERALLY IN THE
0.10-0.25" RANGE WITH NO ACCUMULATION IN SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY
TO UP TO 0.33" IN NORTHERN MONO COUNTY.
* GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH SATURDAY SEEING
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WHILE SIERRA RIDGETOPS NEAR
100 MPH. THESE WINDS COULD IMPACT OUTDOOR PLANS, AVIATION, AND
ROAD TRAVEL PARTICULARLY FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES DUE TO
CROSSWIND HAZARDS.
* EXPECT A 15-20 DEGREE COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP FROM THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY
INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY. SIERRA VALLEYS WILL DROP FROM THE 60S TO
UPPER 40S. FUENTES
AVIATION
* THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AT KMMH ON WEDNESDAY,
PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
PRECIPITATION. THIS DECREASES TO 20-25% CHANCE AT KTVL/KTRK.
* 20-30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT KMMH THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 21-03Z WITH A 10-15% CHANCE AS FAR NORTH AS KTVL/KMEV.
* FZFG MAY DEVELOP AT KTRK THROUGH 16Z THIS MORNING, LOWERING
CIGS/VIS TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT BREEZES PREVAIL. -MCKELLAR/FUENTES
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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