638
FXUS65 KREV 222057
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
157 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS, RAIN, AND HIGH ELEVATION SIERRA SNOW EARLY SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
* TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 15-20 DEGREES BY SUNDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
* TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SLOWLY TREND WARMER AND DRIER BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
* SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN IN MONO COUNTY, WITH CAMERA
NETWORKS SHOWING SNOW LEVELS AROUND 9,500'. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED
SHOWERS THAT ARE MOSTLY VIRGA CONTINUE IN THE INNER-BASIN AND
RANGES AND EASTERN SIERRA. AREAS THAT DO SEE SHOWERS CAN EXPECT
MINOR LIQUID AND SNOW TOTALS.
WEEKEND STORM (WEAK-MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER STORM):
* FRIDAY NOW LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO NORTHEAST CA/NORTHERN
WASHOE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND INTO THE TAHOE AREA BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS THEN EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO MONO
COUNTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY,
WHICH ALSO HAS THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES (40-60%) FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF MONO COUNTY. AS FOR
WESTERN NV, WE ARE TRENDING TO BE MOSTLY SHADOWED FOR THIS
EVENT. THE BEST CHANCES (30-40%) FOR SHOWERS ARE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FOR SUNDAY, THE STORM DOOR
REMAINS OPEN WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CA/NORTHWEST NV.
* THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST
CONCERNING PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL TOTALS. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOOKING AT 0.50-1.0" IN THE TAHOE BASIN,
WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, THE SURPRISE VALLEY, AND FAR NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY. SPILLOVER PRECIPITATION FOR FAR WESTERN NV IS
AROUND 0.10-0.25", WITH UP TO 0.40" IN NORTHERN MONO COUNTY TO
NOTHING IN SOUTHERN MONO. SNOW LEVELS HAVE REMAINED NEAR
8,000-8,500 FEET, AND WET SNOWFALL BETWEEN 1-3" IS CONCEIVABLE
ON THE HIGHER PEAKS. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALTHOUGH THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL HAS DECREASED, WIND AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL MAY STILL PRESENT SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
* GUSTY WINDS ARE BECOMING LIKELY, WITH SATURDAY SEEING SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WHILE SIERRA RIDGETOPS NEAR 100 MPH.
THESE WINDS COULD IMPACT OUTDOOR PLANS, AVIATION, AND ROAD
TRAVEL PARTICULARLY FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES DUE TO CROSSWIND
HAZARDS.
* BY SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE, WITH MOSTLY 50S IN WESTERN NV AND LOW-MID 40S FOR THE
EASTERN SIERRA. WE'LL START A SLOW WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER. -MCKELLAR
AVIATION
* LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 03Z AT KMMH, PRODUCING AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND PRECIPITATION. THIS
DECREASES TO 20-25% CHANCE AT KTVL/KTRK UNTIL 03Z.
* 20-30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT KMMH UNTIL 03Z WITH A
10-15% CHANCE AS FAR NORTH AS KTVL/KMEV.
* FZFG MAY DEVELOP AT KTRK FROM LATE TONIGHT THRU 16Z THURSDAY,
LOWERING CIGS/VIS TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT BREEZES PREVAIL. -MCKELLAR
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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