528
FXUS65 KREV 082232
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
232 PM PST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS, AND A WARMING TREND CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.
* TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK MONDAY WITH RECORD-SETTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
* A STORM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-MOUNTAIN SNOW, VALLEY RAIN, AND STRONG WINDS.
DISCUSSION
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL
SATURDAY. THIS PLEASANT FALL WEATHER PATTERN, DRIVEN BY HIGH
PRESSURE, WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH VETERANS DAY, MAKING FOR
EXCELLENT OUTDOOR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP CLIMBING,
PEAKING ON MONDAY IN POTENTIAL RECORD TERRITORY. FOR REFERENCE,
THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH AT KRNO ON MONDAY IS 74 DEGREES; WE SEE AN
85% CHANCE OF TYING OR BREAKING THAT RECORD, WITH AN 80% CHANCE
OF BREAKING IT OUTRIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE WARMTH, LIGHT WINDS AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE NIGHTS. THIS SETUP BRINGS A 30% CHANCE OF FZFG IN THE
MARTIS VALLEY TONIGHT.
A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO FALL ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST
TO IMPACT THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN CHANGE, BUT SOME KEY
DIFFERENCES REMAIN. SPECIFICALLY, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ITS
PASSAGE.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOR MUCH OF THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT,
WE LOOK TO BE IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK. THIS AREA OF LARGE-SCALE DESCENT MAY ENHANCE THE DOWNWARD
TRANSPORT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT (50-60 KTS AT 700 HPA),
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS. THE NBM
CURRENTLY HAS MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA AND VALLEYS OF THE SIERRA AT
A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH THURSDAY.
REGARDING MOISTURE, THERE IS A 60-70% PROBABILITY OF IVT VALUES
EXCEEDING 250 KG/(MS) IMPINGING ON THE SIERRA NEVADA, INDICATING A
NOTABLE MOISTURE FEED. HOWEVER, WHILE IVT VALUES LOOK MODEST, THE
DIRECTION OF THE TRANSPORT IS KEY. THE VECTORS ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM THE SSW, WHICH FORMS AND OBTUSE ANGLE WITH THE SIERRA CREST.
THIS ORIENTATION IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
SPILLOVER INTO THE SIERRA FRONT.
FURTHERMORE, WITH THE STRONGER JET CORE AND ASSOCIATED QG ASCENT
REMAINING FARTHER NORTH, THE DYNAMICS FOR SPILLOVER ALSO APPEAR
LIMITED. THIS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ALSO MEANS THE STORM APPEARS
TO BE A WARMER ONE, WHICH WOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH.
AS WITH ANY FORECAST 5+ DAYS OUT, DETAILS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE,
BUT THOSE IN THE REGION SHOULD START TO PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM STRONG WINDS, VALLEY RAIN, AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW
LATE NEXT WEEK.
-JOHNSTON
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
OVERNIGHT, WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. LIGHT
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL TERMINALS.
THE MAIN EXCEPTION REMAINS KTRK. THE INCOMING CIRRUS DECK MAY HINDER
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH OVERNIGHT, WHICH IS WHY WE ONLY HAVE A
30% CHANCE OF FZFG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. IF FZFG DOES
MANAGE TO FORM, IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT
FZFG HUNG ON THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING, ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
COULD LAST WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
-JOHNSTON
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page