474
FXUS65 KREV 090924
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
124 AM PST SUN NOV 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS, AND A WARMING TREND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.
* TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK MONDAY WITH RECORD-SETTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
* A STORM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-MOUNTAIN SNOW, VALLEY RAIN, AND STRONG WINDS.
DISCUSSION
A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN US THAT IS ALLOWING OUR
REGION TO WARM UP A LITTLE BIT MORE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK ON MONDAY WITH LOWER VALLEYS GETTING INTO THE MID-70'S AND
SIERRA COMMUNITIES IN THE UPPER 60'S. KRNO HAS AN 80% CHANCE TO
TIE AND 50-60% CHANCE TO BREAK OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 74
DEGREES ON MONDAY. OTHER THAN THE WARM TEMPS, WE'LL HAVE SOME
LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. PATCHY FREEZING
FOG WILL LIKELY BE BACK AT KTRK AND MARTIS VALLEY THIS MORNING,
THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE CHANCES GO TO NEAR ZERO DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. A PACIFIC NW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO PUSH OUR CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF
THE WAY MID-LATE WEEK. LAST NIGHT, THERE WAS PRETTY SOLID
AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLES AND EVEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS, BUT
TONIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS HAVE DIVERGED QUITE DRASTICALLY.
I WON'T GET TOO INTO THE SPECIFICS OF THE DIFFERENCES THIS FAR
OUT, BUT OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.
THE WINDS WILL PEAK FIRST SOME TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY
MORNING, THEN THE LEADING EDGE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY AFTER. IF THE CORE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS HOLD
UP AS THIS GETS CLOSER, THE SIERRA FRONT AND EASTERN SIERRA ARE
GOING TO SEE STRONG, DOWNSLOPING WINDS AGAIN LIKE WE SAW THIS PAST
WEDNESDAY. ONLY THIS TIME AROUND IT'LL BE A STRONG, ALMOST DUE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN TRENDING UP
OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS, AS REFLECTED IN THE EC EFI (EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX) AND THE ENSEMBLES. WE'LL SEE IF THAT TREND
CONTINUES THIS WEEK AS THE HI-RES MODELS START TO PICK UP ON THIS
STORM.
THE BAND OF PRECIP WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ENTIRE SIERRA FROM
LASSEN COUNTY DOWN TO SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL
START OFF HIGH AROUND 8500' AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP, THEN DROP
DRAMATICALLY DOWN TO POSSIBLE 5500' AFTER THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH.
SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY
AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MONO COUNTY, BUT AGAIN THIS FAR OUT
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM REMAINS HIGH. WE'LL ALSO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE SPILLOVER POTENTIAL INTO THE SIERRA FRONT AND WESTERN NV.
RIGHT NOW THE 700MB WIND DIRECTION ISN'T TOO FAVORABLE FOR MUCH
SPILLOVER. MORE DETAILS ON THIS STORM WILL BE COMING SOON, SO
STAY TUNED THIS WEEK!
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND A GENTLE EAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR ALL
TERMINALS. THERE'S PATCHY FREEZING FOG LURKING AROUND KTRK THIS
MORNING THAT MAY SPREAD ONTO THE RUNWAY, HOWEVER IT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 16-17Z.
-JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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