818
FXUS65 KREV 100924
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
124 AM PST MON NOV 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT, TERRAIN-DRIVEN
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
* HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAK THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY
OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
* A POTENT WINTER STORM ARRIVES MID TO LATE WEEK, BUT MODERATE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON ITS TRACK, INTENSITY, AND THE RESULTING
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND SIERRA SNOWFALL.
DISCUSSION
HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAK TODAY WITH OUR RIDGE STILL SITTING OVER
US. LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES UP TO 75 THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES WILL BE PUSHING 70 DEGREES. THERE'S STILL
AN 80% CHANCE KRNO WILL TIE ITS 74 DEGREE RECORD TODAY, BUT ONLY
A 60% CHANCE TO HIT 75 AND BREAK IT. OTHER THAN THE WARM TEMPS,
WE'LL HAVE SOME LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
OUR MAIN FOCUS THIS WEEK THOUGH IS OUR NEXT POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEM. START PREPARING NOW FOR THIS STORM, LIKE BRINGING IN ANY
DECORATIONS, PREPARING VEGETATION FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES, OR IF
YOU'RE IN THE MOUNTAINS, PREPARING FOR OUR FIRST DECENT SNOW OF
THE SEASON. IT WILL BE A MULTI-DAY EVENT WITH ALL OF THE TYPICAL
HAZARDS OF STRONG WINDS, HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND VALLEY RAIN.
I'LL BREAK IT DOWN BY DAY:
WEDNESDAY:
* IT'LL START OFF AS A NORMAL DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES, BREEZY
WINDS, AND A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. EXPECT WINDS OUT OF THE SSW
15-20 MPH GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND PRONE
AREAS ALONG US-395 MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. IN THE EVENING,
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THEIR WARMEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 60-65
RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE STORM GETS CLOSER THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING, PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE,
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE, AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT
AND EASTERN SIERRA START TO MATERIALIZE.
THURSDAY:
* THURSDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE PEAK WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE. THERE
STILL A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST, SO KEEP IN MIND
THESE NUMBERS AND THIS FORECAST MAY VERY WELL CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS
WE GET CLOSER. BUT OVERALL, WINDS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 10PM
WEDNESDAY AND 4AM THURSDAY. THE WAY THE TREND HAS BEEN GOING,
WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG US-395 COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, KRNO
UP TO 50 MPH, SIERRA VALLEYS UP TO 50 MPH INCLUDING MAMMOTH
LAKES, AND UP TO 30-40 MPH ACROSS WESTERN NV. RIGHT AROUND THIS
TIME TOO, THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA ALONG THE SIERRA. WINDS THEN DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY ONCE
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE SIERRA, SOME TIME THURSDAY MORNING.
* SNOW LEVELS START OFF AROUND 8000' GIVE OR TAKE 500', WITH IT
STARTING OFF IN LASSEN COUNTY AND WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH TO MONO
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING. VERY LITTLE SPILLOVER IS EXPECTED
AT FIRST DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW NOT HAVING AN IDEAL ANGLE
TO FORCE IT OVER, BUT BY THE AFTERNOON-EVENING WE MAY SEE SOME
START TO SPILLOVER INTO THE SIERRA FRONT AND EASTERN SIERRA.
SNOWFALL RATES PEAK AT 2-3"/HR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SIERRA
WITH SNOW LEVELS PLUMMETING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS IS WHEN
WE'LL SEE IMPACTS TO SIERRA PASSES AND ANY HIGH ELEVATION ROADS.
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, SNOW TOTALS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND
2 FEET ALONG THE CREST, 12" ALONG SIERRA PASSES, AND 4-6" ALONG
THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS. LIQUID TOTALS WILL AMOUNT TO 2-2.5" ALONG
THE CREST, 0.75" ALONG US-395 FROM MONO COUNTY TO LASSEN COUNTY,
AND UP TO 0.20" IN WESTERN NV. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHOWER
INTENSITY DECREASES AND THERE'S JUST LINGERING SHOWERS LEFT, THE
SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 5000', IF NOT LOWER.
ALTHOUGH THERE STILL ISN'T A GOOD SIGNAL FOR SPILLOVER. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A CHILLY
30 DEGREES IN LOWER VALLEYS AND INTO THE TEENS IN SIERRA
COMMUNITIES, SO MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP FRIDAY MORNING!
FRIDAY:
* BY NOW THE STORM WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH, SHOWERS WILL BE
WRAPPING UP, AND WINDS WILL HAVE CALMED DOWN. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MORE AND THIS FAR OUT THE SPECIFICS ARE A
LITTLE MORE GRAY. BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS THAT TROUGH
MOVING OUT EAST AND A VERY TRANSIENT RIDGE PASSING THROUGH INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT, TERRAIN-DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. THERE'S PATCHY FREEZING FOG
TRYING TO FORM AROUND KTRK THIS MORNING THAT MAY BECOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG (15% CHANCE), HOWEVER IF IT DOES IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 16Z. THESE CALM AND QUIET VFR CONDITIONS WON'T LAST FOR MUCH
LONGER THOUGH. A PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST TO BRING STRONGER
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
-JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page