816
FXUS65 KREV 111018
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
218 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY.
* A WINTER STORM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING
STRONG WINDS, VALLEY RAIN, AND SIERRA SNOW.
* A DRYING TREND PREVAILS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A RETURN OF
BREEZY WINDS AND SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS FOR ONE MORE DAY OVER OUR AREA LEADING TO
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF PATCHY FOG IN AREAS NEAR
THE MARTIS VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF I-80 BETWEEN BOCA AND DONNER
LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY TRACKS EAST.
WINDS START TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
WIND PRONE AREAS IN THE SIERRA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. BY THE AFTERNOON, GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN RIDGES AND
WIND PRONE AREAS. FURTHERMORE, THE COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS WITH
LOW HUMIDITIES IN MONO COUNTY BRING ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS, MORE
INFO IN THE FIRE SECTION BELOW.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE SURFACE WHILE THE 700 MB
JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL SIERRA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
INTENSIFYING ALONG THE SIERRA CREST (75-100+ MPH GUSTS). THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 1 AM TO 1 PM ON THURSDAY MORNING
FOR THE SIERRA, SIERRA FRONT AND NE CA WITH GUSTS TO 40-55 MPH,
AND FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM IN THE NV BASIN AND RANGE INTO MINERAL
COUNTY. WIND PRONE AREAS MAY BE GUSTING BETWEEN 45-65 MPH WITH A
25-65% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 55 MPH.
RAIN AND SNOW ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO 0.3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN NV AND NE CA WITH A
25-80% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.25 INCHES. PLEASE NOTICE THE SPREAD
IN PROBABILITY AS WE STILL HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM REGARDING THE SPILLOVER IN NV. LIQUID
AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NE CA WITH A 20-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1.25 INCHES.
THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE SIERRA CREST AND HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF MOUNTAINS IN NE CA WITH UP TO 2 INCHES, ALTHOUGH
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT SNOW LEVELS PERSIST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW.
NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A SPREAD OF 1.5 KFT FOR THE SNOW LINE.
SO, IN SUMMARY THE PEAKS IN THE EASTERN SIERRA/MONO ARE LIKELY TO
SEE AT LEAST A FOOT OF SNOW ABOVE 9.5 KFT. SNOW AMOUNTS BELOW 9.0
KFT ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY, BUT WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
IMPACTS TO SIERRA PASSES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW, GET READY
FOR A WINTER EVENT SOMETIME ON THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SIERRA.
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY TO GUSTY RIDGETOPS PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LEAVES THE AREA. HOWEVER,
ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK DISTURBANCES APPEAR TO AFFECT US KEEPING COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AFTERNOON BREEZES AND LOW CHANCES OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
-HC
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF PATCHY FZFG CONTINUE BETWEEN
12-16Z AT KTRK THIS MORNING. WINDS START TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS INCREASE
WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF MINOR TURBULENCE AND LLWS IN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV TERMINALS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.
-HC
FIRE WEATHER
GUSTY SW/W WINDS (30-45 MPH) AND LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY MAY YIELD A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF MONO COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY THROUGH
THE CHALFANT VALLEY. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BUT RISING HUMIDITY IN THE EVENING SHOULD MITIGATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
-SALAS/HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT NVZ002.
CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT CAZ071>073.
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