038
FXUS65 KREV 122303
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 PM PST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, INCREASING ON THURSDAY WITH
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND RECREATION POSSIBLE.
* PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. TRAVEL IMPACTS LIKELY ACROSS MONO COUNTY PASSES.
* A COLDER STORM IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING INCREASED
WINDS, AND ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW.
DISCUSSION
MILD, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON. S/SW GUSTS WILL PEAK IN THE 20-30 MPH, WHICH MAY POSE
MINOR TRAVEL AND RECREATION IMPACTS. LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE
CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
MONO COUNTY, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHALFANT VALLEY WHERE RH REDUCES TO
20-25%. WINDS SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING ACROSS VALLEYS, BUT
LIKELY STAY BREEZY INTO THURSDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY WHEN GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
PRESENT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND RECREATION (CHOPPY LAKES).
OUR INCOMING PACIFIC STORM IS STILL POISED TO BRING STRONG WINDS,
AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
BUT THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS. AS IT APPROACHES, THE PARENT UPPER LOW
WILL DETACH FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND MEANDER OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS PREVENTS COLDER AIR FROM OVERSPREADING THE
REGION IN EARNEST, AND KEEPS US ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH HIGHER SNOW
LEVELS. A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TO THE SIERRA THURSDAY MORNING, BUT
ELEVATIONS BELOW 9000 FT (PERHAPS HIGHER) WILL ONLY SEE RAIN WITH
SNOW CONFINED TO HIGHEST PEAKS. MOREOVER, THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
SLOW DOWN ONCE REACHING THE SIERRA, RESULTING IN GREATER RAIN AND
RIDGETOP SNOW TOTAL. SNOW LEVELS FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT ONLY TO AROUND 7500 FT AND 8500 FT AROUND TAHOE AND IN
MONO COUNTY, RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER, SHOWER ACTIVITY DOES TAPER OFF
DURING THIS TIME, SO NOT MUCH SNOWFALL (IF ANY) IS ANTICIPATED BELOW
9000 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY. OUR MAIN CONCERN IS TRAVEL THROUGH SIERRA
PASSES IN MONO COUNTY WHERE THERE IS UP TO 95% CHANCE OF 6+" OF
SNOW. BE PREPARED FOR DELAYS AND ROAD CLOSURES IF YOU MUST TRAVEL
THROUGH THESE PASSES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A BRIEF LULL IN THE RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE SHOWER COVERAGE EXPANDS FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN, SNOW LEVELS BEGIN HIGH SATURDAY (9000+ FEET) BEFORE
FALLING TO 7000-7500 FEET LATE SUNDAY. THIS SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIP
WILL BE LIGHTER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN AND SNOW
FAVORING AREAS SOUTH OF I-80. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY RENEW
TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES IN MONO COUNTY ON SUNDAY.
WE WON'T HAVE TO WAIT LONG FOR OUR NEXT STORM AS GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK, THIS ONE COLDER THAN THE
PREVIOUS. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER AND POSE SIERRA
TRAVEL IMPACTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS
STORM, HOWEVER, SO BE SURE TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST FREQUENTLY.
-SALAS
AVIATION
LLWS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AS
S-SW FL100 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY WITH S/SW GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. PERIODS OF
RAIN BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING FOR SIERRA TERMINALS, AND CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KTRK-KTVL-KMMH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SIERRA
FRONT TERMINALS AS A FEW SHOWERS SPILLOVER.
-SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM PST FRIDAY
NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY NVZ004.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM PST FRIDAY
CAZ072.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM PST FRIDAY
CAZ073.
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