989
FXUS65 KREV 142142
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
142 PM PST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* AFTER A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURN THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.
* A COLDER STORM ARRIVES MONDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW, BREEZY WINDS, AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.
* COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SNOW LEVELS
GENERALLY IN THE 8500-9500 FOOT RANGE. SNOWFALL IN THE SIERRA HAS
BEEN LIMITED AND WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED, WE
HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING A FEW HOURS EARLY FOR
MONO COUNTY, AND LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE FOR TAHOE.
THESE LINGERING SHOWER BANDS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING, BUT
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST COULD REACH MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES AS SOON AS
LATE TONIGHT, WITH BETTER CHANCES SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF US-50 THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
THEN SHOWS VARIED TIMING WITH FURTHER NORTHWARD EXPANSION, AS SOME
SCENARIOS SPREAD A SWATH OF LIGHTER RAIN PAST I-80 ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. OVERALL THE
BEST CHANCES (70% AND ABOVE) FOR WETTING RAINFALL FAVOR LATE
SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH 0.20-0.50"
TOTALS COMMON ACROSS MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 1" NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND IN AREAS WHERE HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS PERSIST. SNOW LEVELS WILL START QUITE HIGH ON
SATURDAY, NEAR OR ABOVE 9000 FEET, BUT THEN DROP TO NEAR 6500-7000
FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND EJECTS ACROSS CENTRAL NV.
WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES ABOVE 8000 FEET THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-6", BUT ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO
3" COULD SETTLE DOWN TO NEAR 7000 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
LEADING TO SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON MORE HEAVILY TRAVELED PASSES
INCLUDING DONNER AND ECHO SUMMITS.
COOL UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
SUNDAY, WITH YET ANOTHER STORM FAST APPROACHING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE COOLER WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR 6000 FEET, BUT THE TRACK REMAINS VARIABLE
AMONG THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, WITH SOME SCENARIOS ALSO PINCHING
THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH AND SHIFTING THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
TO MONO COUNTY AND SOUTHERN CA. WE COULD SEE A BREAK IN STORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME BUT CHANCES FOR
MORE PRECIP INCREASE AGAIN AROUND THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER WITH THIS LATE WEEK STORM POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES HAVE MORE
CERTAINTY OF REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS AND 40S
FOR EASTERN CA AND SIERRA COMMUNITIES. MJD
AVIATION
BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
WITH PERIODS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS, ALONG WITH PATCHES OF LOWER
MVFR CEILINGS DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AFTER YESTERDAY'S RAIN.
WE'LL CATCH A SHORT PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS EVENING FROM US-50
NORTHWARD WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG AROUND KTRK, BEFORE
THICKER CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADS ALL THE MAIN TERMINALS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. KMMH HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL (70% OR HIGHER
CHANCES) FOR LONGER PERIODS OF MVFR AND INTERMITTENT IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH BANDS
OF RAIN. FOR THE OTHER MAIN TERMINALS, POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS INCREASES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY (20-40% CHANCE) AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT (50-80% CHANCE) AS A LARGER AREA OF RAIN
MOVES THROUGH.
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH GUSTS BELOW 20 KT
AT THE MAIN TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST BREEZES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT FROM THE EAST ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, THEN
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT THROUGH THE DAY, LEADING TO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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