253
FXUS65 KREV 150910
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
110 AM PST SAT NOV 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* PERIODS OF WETTING RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURN THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.
* A COLDER STORM APPROACHES THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN,
MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND BREEZY WINDS.
* COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL STORMS QUEUE UP IN THE PACIFIC.
DISCUSSION
OK, NOVEMBER. WE'RE GOING TO TAKE THIS ONE PESKY STORM AT A TIME.
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS GIVING OCTOBER VIBES WITH STORMS
DETOURING OFF THE ORIGINAL FORECAST TRACKS. LONG STORY, SHORT: THE
PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO REMAIN ACTIVE AND STORMY, BUT THE DETAILS
WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN WITH EACH OF THE PACIFIC STORMS THAT
LINE UP OFF THE WEST COAST.
* RAIN AND SNOW TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW RETURNS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY FILL IN FROM SOUTH (MONO COUNTY) TO NORTH (INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR) OVERNIGHT. WE'RE LOOKING AT LIQUID TOTALS OF
0.20-0.50" ACROSS MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 1" NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. THERE IS A HINT OF
CONVECTIVE (THUNDERSTORM) NATURE POSSIBLE WHERE WE COULD SEE
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS PERSIST. SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR OR ABOVE
9000 FEET ON SATURDAY, BUT ARE PROJECTED TO PLUMMET NEAR
6500-7000 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING (12A-4A). WINTER TRAVEL
IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST SIERRA
PASSES ABOVE 8000 FEET THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-6", BUT ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 3"
COULD SETTLE DOWN TO NEAR 7000 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
LEADING TO SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON MORE HEAVILY TRAVELED
PASSES INCLUDING DONNER AND ECHO SUMMITS.
* NEXT STORM ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY: AFTER A BREAK FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, ANOTHER COLDER STORM ARRIVES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WHAT A DOOZY. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS STORM (POSSIBLY
NEAR 6000 FEET), BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE EVER-CHANGING TRACK.
SOME SCENARIOS, ALARMINGLY, DRAG THIS STORM ALONG THE CA
COASTLINE WHICH WOULD YIELD LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. ADMITTEDLY, THERE ARE
SOME SCENARIOS WITH A BETTER TRACK THAT WOULD BRING WRAP-AROUND
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION, BUT THAT WOULD BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE SNOW PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOWER (THAN I'D PREFER)
AT AROUND 35% CHANCE OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR AREAS SUCH AS SOUTH
LAKE AND MAMMOTH LAKES.
* UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS: IF THE MONDAY STORM DROPS WAY SOUTH,
THEN WE COULD SEE A BREAK TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, BUT THAT IS A BIG
IF CONSIDERING THAT SOME SCENARIOS ALLOW THE STORM TO LINGER
ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW, WE'D STILL PLAN ON THE
TEMPERATURES BEING UNSEASONABLY COLDER AS THE STORMS TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION.
-EDAN
AVIATION
PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL PERSIST AT KTRK UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR FOR SIERRA TERMINALS INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN AROUND 15Z FOR KMMH AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. BANDS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW (ABOVE 9000 FEET)
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY UNDER STRONGER SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY (~6500 FEET) WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW AROUND 8Z SUNDAY FOR
KMMH AND 14Z FOR KTVL. FOR KTRK, THERE'S A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE
RAIN TO SWITCHOVER TO SNOW (14% CHANCE OF SNOW). UP TO 1-2 INCHES OF
HEAVY, WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR KMMH/KTVL THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH GUSTS BELOW 20 KT AT THE MAIN
TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SOUTHWEST BREEZES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT
FROM THE EAST ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. FL100 WINDS SHIFT AND
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT THE
REST OF THE DAY. PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE WILL DEVELOP
WITH THE INCREASING FL100 WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY.
-EDAN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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