086
FXUS65 KREV 182125
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
125 PM PST TUE NOV 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER IN SOUTHERN MONO CO AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND FREEZING FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
* ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA THURSDAY, BUT THIS IS NOT NEARLY AS WET AS THE MULTI-
DAY STORM WE JUST HAD.
* LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING, THE WEATHER FOR
TRAVELING LOOKS GOOD THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. SIMULATIONS ARE
POINTING TOWARD A COLDER STORM THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING THE
HOLIDAY, DETAILS TBD.
DISCUSSION
* AFTER A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF WETTING RAINS, AND LIQUID TOTALS THAT
HAVE PUSHED KRNO TO THE 11TH WETTEST START OF THE WATER YEAR
(10/1/25-11/17/25), WE'RE GOING TO START TO DRY OUT, BUT THIS WILL
BE A SHORT-LIVED REPRIEVE. PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES, ALONG WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS, WILL
HELP FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP IN VALLEYS ACROSS THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA. PLACES LIKE THE MARTIS VALLEY AND CARSON
VALLEY HAVE A SOLID 90% CHANCE, WHILE OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE
A 60% CHANCE OVERNIGHT FROM APPROXIMATELY 10 PM THROUGH 8 AM. WE
HAVE ALREADY SOLIDIFIED THE LATEST "FIRST FREEZE", AKA 32 DEGREES
OR COLDER FOR KRNO, WITH THE PREVIOUS RECORD 11/16/16. TONIGHT, WE
MAY FINALLY REACH THAT MARK WITH A FORECAST LOW OF 31, BUT IF WE
HAVE ENOUGH FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOP, IT COULD KEEP THINGS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.
* THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS
HOVERING IN THE 5.5-6.5KFT RANGE. THIS MEANS THAT THE WEATHER
TYPE WILL BE SNOW FOR ALL SIERRA PASSES, BUT TOTALS DO NOT LOOK
OVERLY PROBLEMATIC. THE MID-RANGE SNOW TOTALS IN THE SIERRA ARE
2-5 INCHES, WITH THE HIGH-END (1 IN 10 CHANCE) SCENARIO REACHING
8-12" OF SNOW ALONG THE CREST. BE PREPARED FOR CHAIN CONTROLS
AND TRAVEL DELAYS IF YOU ARE TRAVERSING THE SIERRA ON THURSDAY.
LIQUID TOTALS ARE NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS STORM AS
THE COUPLE WE JUST HAD, WITH 0.3-0.8" FOR THE SIERRA, AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
INTO NORTHEAST CA AND WESTERN NV.
* NE-E WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY,
WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE WEEKEND IS GENERALLY QUIET WITH NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO MONDAY.
THERE'S A 10% CHANCE FOR A WEAK SYSTEM TO BRUSH NORTH OF THE
REGION THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD PRODUCE LIGHT
SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE OREGON BORDER AND BRING COOLING INTO
TUESDAY.
* LOOKING AHEAD TO ONE OF THE BUSIEST TRAVEL PERIOD OF THE YEAR --
THE WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING IS LOOKING QUIET, BUT WE ARE SEEING
A LARGE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLES (80+%) INDICATING A COLDER TROUGH
FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING THE HOLIDAY, WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES. WITH THIS STORM BEING 10-12 DAYS OUT, IT'S STILL TBD ON
MANY DETAILS, BUT JUST SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF IF YOU DO HAVE
TRAVEL PLANS. -DAWN
AVIATION
* WHILE LOWER CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING ON SATELLITE, OBSERVATIONS
AROUND THE REGION ARE STILL SHOWING PLENTIFUL CLOUDS OBSCURING
TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS HAS A MODERATE-HIGH
CHANCE OF FORMING OVERNIGHT. TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE KTRK AND KMEV (90% CHANCE), BUT PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG
HAS A 60% CHANCE OF FORMING AT ANY OTHER VALLEY TERMINAL. TIME
FRAME TO WATCH OUT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 03Z-
15Z.
* OTHERWISE, IMPROVED FLYING CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY, BEFORE OUR
NEXT STORM BRINGS AN UPTICK IN SW WINDS (~25-40 KTS AT FL100) AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY. NE-E WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. -DAWN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ073.
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