663
FXUS65 KREV 190945
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
145 AM PST WED NOV 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* FOLLOWING A MORNING OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG IN VALLEY LOCATIONS,
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
* ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT THIS IS NOT NEARLY AS WET
AS THE MULTI-DAY STORM WE JUST HAD.
* LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING, THE WEATHER FOR
TRAVELING LOOKS GOOD THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. SIMULATIONS ARE
THEN POINTING TOWARD A POTENTIAL COLDER STORM DURING THE
WEEKEND AFTER THE HOLIDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: AT THE TIME OF THE COMPOSITION OF THIS DISCUSSION, THE RENO-
TAHOE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ASOS (KRNO) HAS NOT YET HIT 32F THIS
MORNING THOUGH THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS. WILL BE MONITORING THE
OBSERVATIONS TO SEE IF THE LATEST "FIRST FREEZE" AT THAT SITE WILL
BE RECORDED THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE REGION, OTHER OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY
AREAS. AS THERE HAS BEEN RECENT PRECIPITATION AND THERE ARE CLEAR
SKIES ABOVE, THESE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO FOG AND FREEZING FOG
FORMATION, SO PLEASE USE CAUTION TRAVELING THIS MORNING AS
VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED. BUT THE FOG CHANCES LOOK TO DISAPPEAR
BY THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. COOL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS WESTERN NV VALLEYS
RANGES BETWEEN THE MIDDLE 40S AND MIDDLE 50S WITH THE SIERRA
COMMUNITIES' HIGHS BETWEEN THE UPPER 30S AND UP TO JUST AROUND
THE 50 DEGREE MARK. AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE CWA
LATE TODAY, CLOUD COVER EXPECTS TO INCREASE WHICH WILL LIMIT
OVERNIGHT COOLING. AS SUCH, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND: SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, THE
WINDOW FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES OPENS IN NE CA AND IN THE
TAHOE BASIN AREA AS THE PACIFIC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CA AND PASSED THE CWA TO THE WEST. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST AT THE
CREST DURING THE MORNING WITH THIS SETUP. THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (~50-75%) THEN WILL SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE CWA GOING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY THE
EVENING HOURS, THE RAIN/SNOW CHANCE BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO AROUND
15-25% AND BE CONFINED MOSTLY SOUTH OF US-50. ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN DISAPPEAR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ON FRIDAY. AS FOR FORECAST SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS SYSTEM,
THEY LOOK TO BEGIN AROUND 6-6.5 KFT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND 5.5-6 KFT IN THE LATE MORNING AND
THEN CONTINUE MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE LIFE OF THE SYSTEM. MOST OF
THE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SIERRA AS THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW A 40-60% CHANCE OF
4 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE AT THE PASS LEVEL IN THE TAHOE REGION
AND A 60-80% CHANCE OF THE SAME AT THE PASS LEVEL IN THE EASTERN
SIERRA. AT TAHOE LAKE LEVEL AND NEAR VIRGINIA CITY, THERE IS
CURRENTLY A 20-30% PROBABILITY OF 2 INCHES OR MORE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN CASE SNOW AMOUNTS
START TO TREND UPWARD. FOLLOWING THE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THAT END
THE WORK WEEK, A RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND SIGNALING FOR COOL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE AND A DRY
PATTERN TO PREVAIL.
THANKSGIVING WEEK: LOOKING AHEAD TO ONE OF THE BUSIEST TRAVEL PERIOD
OF THE YEAR, THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE DRY
PERIOD CONTINUING AND THAT SIGNS OF THE WEATHER ON THANKSGIVING
MAY BE RELATIVELY QUIET. HOWEVER, WE ARE STILL ARE SEEING A LARGE
NUMBER OF ENSEMBLES (80+%) INDICATING A COLDER TROUGH FOR THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING THE HOLIDAY, WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES. IT IS
STILL TO EARLY TO GET INTO PARTICULAR DETAILS WITH THIS STORM
BEING 10-12 DAYS OUT, BUT JUST SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF IF YOU DO
HAVE HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS. -078
AVIATION
CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN THROUGH THIS MORNING DUE
TO CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR FG/FZFG TO FORM REDUCING VISIBILITIES
IN VALLEY AREAS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE BY AROUND 17-18Z FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. BEYOND THAT: DRY CONDITIONS, RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS, AND DECREASED CLOUD COVER ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. GOING INTO THE NIGHT, AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CAUSE CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE
WITHIN THE REGION. SHORTLY AFTER THURSDAY BEGINS, THE SYSTEM
BRINGS SNOW CHANCES TO THE SIERRA AND NE CA WHILE RIDGE WINDS
GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30-35 KTS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
MORNING. THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR RAIN AND SNOW THAT
COULD LOWER FLIGHT RULES. THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE VANISHING COMPLETELY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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