377
FXUS65 KREV 202226
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
226 PM PST THU NOV 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* AN ONGOING WINTER STORM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW, MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET, THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE THURSDAY EVENING
COMMUTE.
* A COLD, DRY PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD CHILL MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. A 10% CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OREGON BORDER MONDAY.
* WEATHER LOOKS GOOD LEADING INTO THANKSGIVING, BUT SIMULATIONS
POINT TOWARD A POTENTIAL COLDER STORM DURING THE WEEKEND AFTER
THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
* THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY: THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING
SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. OBSERVED
SNOW LEVELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 5000-5500 FOOT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CONFIRMED THE NEED FOR THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EXPANSION TO INCLUDE THE GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA AND
THE GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE
ADVISORY ELEVATION FOR SOUTHERN LYON/MINERAL COUNTIES WAS
ACCORDINGLY LOWERED TO 5000 FEET, AND THE DURATION FOR MONO
COUNTY AND S. LYON/MINERAL COUNTIES ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 8 AM PST FRIDAY. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL CONFINED TO THE SIERRA AND CARSON RANGE AS
OF THIS WRITING. BY 4-6 PM, THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS
TO TAPER AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE RENO-TAHOE CORRIDOR. THE
REMAINING MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO
MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES AFTER 8 PM. SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION FINALLY EXIT AND DIMINISH BY 8 AM FRIDAY, INITIATING A
DRIER POST-FRONTAL PATTERN.
* THE WEEKEND: AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FORECAST TO BUILD AND
DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL FOSTER EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING, ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD CHILLY MORNINGS,
WITH MOST OF THE REGION SEEING TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S
AND LOWER 30S.
* THANKSGIVING WEEK: THE RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK, PERMITTING GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
SEEN ON MONDAY ALONG THE OR BORDER, WHERE A WEAK, NORTHERN-
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY, GENERATING A LOW PROBABILITY
(10%) FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG SURPRISE VALLEY AND N.
WASHOE CO. FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING THANKSGIVING, EXTENDED
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
COLDER WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION, ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC
DETAILS REGARDING TRACK AND QPF REMAIN TO BE DETERMINED.
-JOHNSTON
AVIATION
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING SIERRA TERMINALS
WITH ALL TERMINALS CURRENTLY IFR WITH -SN/SN. WESTERN NEVADA
TERMINALS ARE GENERALLY SEEING MVFR CIGS AND VIS DUE TO -RA THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING, WITH IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH KMMH WILL SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SN INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN SIERRA
ROUND 14-16Z FRIDAY. A DRY PATTERN INITIATES INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
-JOHNSTON
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ002-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST FRIDAY NVZ001.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST FRIDAY CAZ073.
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