922
FXUS65 KREV 242333
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
333 PM PST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WINTER STORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SIERRA SNOW, SIGNIFICANT
MOUNTAIN TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS, AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.
* SNOW IMPACTS MAY SPREAD INTO WESTERN NEVADA FOOTHILLS CHRISTMAS
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
* DRY WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG SIERRA RIDGES.
DISCUSSION
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS WELL UNDERWAY AS THE FIRST OF TWO WINTER
STORMS IMPACTS THE REGION. A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION BEHIND AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WE'LL TRANSITION
INTO THE COLDER SIDE OF THE STORM ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THIS
EVENING, RESULTING IN MORE SPOTTY, SHOWERY RAIN AND SNOW. THE COLDER
AIR WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY, WHICH MAY YIELD THE
OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL REACH THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
CHRISTMAS MORNING, WHICH WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN
SNOW, RAIN, AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY IN AND ACROSS THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS BEGIN AROUND 6000'
CHRISTMAS MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO 4500-5500' CHRISTMAS NIGHT, SO
SNOW IMPACTS TO TRAVEL MAY SPREAD FOOTHILL COMMUNITIES. CHRISTMAS
WILL ALSO BE WINDY, PARTICULARLY DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS WHEN
SOUTHERLY GUSTS INCREASE TO 45-55 MPH IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD WILL BE INTERMITTENT, HOWEVER, AS
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS WILL OCCASIONALLY
DAMPEN WINDS. STILL, BE PREPARED FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS
AND AVIATION IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FOLLOWING ANOTHER LULL IN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, RAIN AND SNOW
IS REINVIGORATED BY YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO/NEAR W NV VALLEY FLOORS
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WE'LL BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE IT DOES. SO WHILE
SHOWERS MAY HANG AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT SNOW DOWN TO THE
GREATER RENO-CARSON-MINDEN AREA, THERE IS ONLY UP TO A 10% CHANCE OF
1" OF SNOW ON FRIDAY. THERE IS GREATER CONCERN FOR SNOW IMPACTS TO
FOOTHILL AREAS ABOVE 5000' (E.G. VIRGINIA CITY) WHERE 4-8" OF
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY MORNING.
DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IT
WILL VERY COLD AS HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S THIS WEEKEND.
GUSTY NE WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY ALONG SIERRA RIDGES THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. STORMY WEATHER IS TRENDING TOWARDS RETURNING AROUND THE
NEW YEAR, SO STAY TUNED IF PLANNING ANY TRAVELING.
-SALAS
AVIATION
* TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LLWS UNDER MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR IS THE
CONDITIONS TO DAY AT SIERRA TERMINALS KMMH/KTVL/KTRK. THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF SNOWFALL THAT BRING BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS
WILL APPEAR BETWEEN ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. GUSTS TODAY WILL BE
AROUND 25-30 KTS FOR SIERRA TERMINALS. FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEY
TERMINALS, WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE 20-25 KTS AT TIMES. TURBULENCE
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. HEAVY, WET SNOW
CHARACTER FOR THE SIERRA TERMINALS HAS ARRIVED FOR THE DAY
ALREADY, AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON RUNWAYS. WESTERN NEVADA
VALLEY TERMINALS ARE EXPECTING MOSTLY RAIN TODAY WITH A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
* GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY ALLOWS FOR WINDS TO RAMP UP. SIERRA
TERMINALS COULD SEE GUSTS 30-35 KTS BETWEEN 15Z THURSDAY THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY. WESTERN NEVADA VALLEY TERMINALS MAY SEE GUSTS 25-30
KTS DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME. FOR SIERRA TERMINALS, EXPECT
HEAVY WET SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE RUNWAYS. WESTERN NEVADA
TERMINALS HAVE A 60-70% CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ON THE
RUNWAYS THROUGH THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PERIOD. KTRK AND KTVL
HAVE A 55-65% CHANCE OF SEEING 18 INCHES TOTAL OF FRESH SNOWFALL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, KMMH HAS A 80-85% CHANCE TO SEE 18 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW ON THE RUNWAY ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE A COUPLE FEET. THESE SNOW TOTALS ARE CONTINGENT
ON SNOW LEVELS, AND MAY BE GREATER TOTALS THAN ADVERTISED SHOULD
SNOW LEVELS FALL EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. HRICH
AVALANCHE
IMPACTS FROM HEAVY, WET SNOW AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF UNSTABLE SNOW AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
* SWE, SLR AND SNOW LEVELS: THIS SERIES OF WAVES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO SNOW LEVELS. 1-2.5" SWE EXPECTED IN THE
TAHOE REGION THOUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SLRS WILL RANGE 5:1 TO 10:1
DURING THE DAY, INCREASING AS SNOW LEVELS DROP INTO THE EVENING TO
8:1 TO AS HIGH AS 12:1 ON THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING, CONTINUING TO FALL
TO AROUND 5000-5500 FEET BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO WRAP UP.
* SNOWFALL TOTALS AND RATES: FOR TODAY, THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS CAN
EXPECT UP TO 2" OF FRESH SNOW. AT LAKE LEVEL, A RANGE OF 1-6"
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THE PERIOD TO INCLUDE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WE EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 18-24" AT LAKE LEVEL AND 4-6' FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.5-1" PER HOUR,
WITH POTENTIALS OF SOME SHOWERS TO OVERPERFORM.
* WIND GUSTS: RIDGES WILL SEE SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 70-90 MPH, WITH
GUSTS NEAR LAKE LEVEL REACHING 30-35 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTS RETURN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, RANGING 80-100 MPH, WITH LAKE
LEVEL GUSTS 35-40 MPH. HRICH
HYDROLOGY
THE SUSAN RIVER NEAR SUSANVILLE CRESTED ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE
THIS MORNING FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS WEEK. THE FLOOD WAVE WILL TAKE
12-24 HOURS TO MAKE IT'S WAY DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS LITCHFIELD AND HONEY
LAKE.
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE NOT QUITE DONE WITH THE FLOOD RISK ON THE
SUSAN RIVER. ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING
BEFORE THE EXPECTED TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL BRING THE RISE THE
RIVER AGAIN. JUST HOW HIGH IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST AS IT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAR THE RIVER DROPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, HOW MUCH
RAIN OCCURS, AND HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN SNOW ELEVATION DROPS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT A THIRD CREST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEK, BUT DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED
ABOVE, I CERTAINLY WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY.
IN OTHER AREAS,HIGH FLOWS ARE ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY IN WATERSHED PRIMARILY DRAINING TERRAIN BELOW ABOUT
6500 FEET. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH PROLONGED PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS TODAY
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
BY MID-DAY THURSDAY WE SHOULD BE DONE WITH NEW FLOODING CONCERNS,
BUT HIGH FLOWS WILL TAKE MANY HOURS TO MAKE THEIR WAY DOWNSTREAM
THROUGH THE LOWER REACHES OF MAIN-STEM RIVERS.
THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILL BE EXTENDING HOURS THIS WEEK AND
ISSUING ADDITIONAL FORECASTS FOR RIVERS WHERE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. CHECK FOR UPDATED RIVER FORECASTS AT: WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY NVZ001-004-005.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY NVZ002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
NVZ003.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY CAZ070.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ071.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY CAZ071>073.
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