617
FXUS65 KREV 252224
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
224 PM PST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* PERIODS OF HEAVY SIERRA SNOW, SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS, AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
* SNOW IMPACTS MAY SPREAD INTO WESTERN NEVADA FOOTHILLS CHRISTMAS
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
* DRY WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG SIERRA RIDGES.
DISCUSSION
MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM YOUR FRIENDS AT NWS RENO! MANY IN THE SIERRA
WOKE UP TO A WHITE CHRISTMAS AS WE'VE RECEIVED 24 HOUR REPORTS OF 5-
10" OF SNOW NEAR LAKE LEVEL AND COMMUNITIES ALONG US-395, AND 1-3
FEET AT TAHOE AND MONO COUNTY SKI RESORTS. RAIN AND SNOW HAS BEEN
QUITE SHOWERY TODAY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE IN WESTERN NEVADA. GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
TONIGHT.
A BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER 9-10 PM PST TONIGHT, RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW AND REINFORCED TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS IN THE
SIERRA. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO NEAR
VALLEY FLOORS OVERNIGHT, BROADENING SNOW IMPACTS TO W NV FOOTHILL
COMMUNITIES (E.G. VIRGINIA CITY) WHERE SNOW TOTALS OF 2-6" (UP TO
10" ABOVE 6000') IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR SNOW DOWN TO W NV VALLEY
FLOORS WILL BE BETWEEN 10 PM AND 6 AM PST, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW MUCH STICKS ON THE GROUND -- ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS THAT
RECEIVED PROLONGED SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. A TRACE TO 2" OF SNOW
SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE ESTIMATE ON VALLEY FLOORS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. THE
CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA BETWEEN 11 PM
AND 2 AM, WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY GREATER SNOWFALL IF/WHERE THIS
BAND MATERIALIZES. SHOULD THIS "BOOM" SCENARIO COME TO FRUITION, BE
PREPARED FOR SNOW IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ACROSS W NV VALLEYS FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, S/SW WINDS LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTY WINDS LINGERING
THROUGH FRIDAY.
ONE FINAL, ALBEIT WEAKER, COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS
IN THE SIERRA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT RAIN AND SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF BY SATURDAY. WHILE RESIDUAL SNOW MAY SUSTAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS IN
AND ACROSS THE SIERRA, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN AFTER FRIDAY WILL BE
GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG SIERRA RIDGES AND VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES (SINGLE DIGITS FOR COLD
PRONE VALLEYS) EACH NIGHT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AROUND AND AFTER
NEW YEAR'S DAY, WHICH MAY RENEW TRAVEL AND RECREATION IMPACTS TO
RING INTO THE NEW YEAR.
-SALAS
AVIATION
* MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR KRNO/KCXP/KMEV
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DUE TO -RA, WITH
POSSIBLE -RASN AS WELL. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR KTRK/KTVL/KMMH DUE TO PERIODS OF HEAVY SN.
SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER, WITH A 50%/80% CHANCE OF RUNWAY
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6+ INCHES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KTVL/KMMH,
RESPECTIVELY. FOR KTRK, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS
GREATER THAN 3 INCHES BY THE SAME TIME. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE
FOR UP TO 3 INCHES AT KRNO/KMEV TONIGHT, BUT THE FORECASTED AMOUNT
IS CLOSER TO 0-1". KCXP HAS A 20-30% CHANCE TO SEE 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE RUNWAY, HOWEVER THE FORECASTED AMOUNT IS CLOSER TO 0.5-
1.5".
* MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LLWS WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED FOR SIERRA FRONT
TERMINALS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR SIERRA TERMINALS.
-GIRALTE/HRICH
AVALANCHE
IMPACTS FROM HEAVY, WET SNOW AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL AVALANCHE CENTER TERRAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
* SWE, SLRS, AND SNOW LEVELS: FOR THE TAHOE BASIN, ADDITIONAL SWE UP
TO 4" ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS, OTHERWISE 1.5-3". SLRS WILL RANGE
FROM 9-11:1, THOUGH, THOSE MIGHT RISE TO 12:1 NEAR THE END OF THE
SYSTEM (FRIDAY AFTERNOON) AS COLDER, DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SNOW
LEVELS THIS WEEK HAVE BEEN HARD TO PREDICT, THOUGH THEY SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND 5500' FOR SAC TERRAIN, WITH 6000' FOR BAC TERRAIN,
AND ~6250' FOR ESAC. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT, WITH LEVELS
BELOW 5000' ACROSS THE SIERRA.
* SNOWFALL TOTALS AND RATES: AT LAKE LEVEL, 10-20" OF SNOW EXPECTED
IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 FEET POSSIBLE ALONG
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. EXPECT SIMILAR TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SIERRA
DOWN INTO MONO COUNTY, WITH UP TO 1 FOOT ALONG US-395.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR FOR SAC TERRAIN, EXCEPT FOR UP TO
2.5"/HR DURING THE MOST INTENSE PERIODS.
* RIDGETOP GUSTS: WSW GUSTS OF 80-100 MPH TODAY, SHIFTING MORE
WESTERLY WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH FRIDAY.
-GIRALTE/HRICH
HYDROLOGY
THE SUSAN RIVER NEAR SUSANVILLE SAW A BRIEF RISE THIS MORNING FROM
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE RIVER HAS SEEN A DROP IN LEVEL
SINCE THIS MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT A THIRD CREST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEK.
IN OTHER AREAS, HIGH FLOWS ARE ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY IN WATERSHED PRIMARILY DRAINING TERRAIN BELOW ABOUT 6000
FEET. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THIS MORNING.
TODAY WE SHOULD BE DONE WITH NEW FLOODING CONCERNS, BUT HIGH FLOWS
WILL TAKE MANY HOURS TO MAKE THEIR WAY DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE LOWER
REACHES OF MAIN-STEM RIVERS.
THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILL BE EXTENDING HOURS THIS WEEK AND
ISSUING ADDITIONAL FORECASTS FOR RIVERS WHERE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
CHECK FOR UPDATED RIVER FORECASTS AT: WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV
-TIM/HRICH
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ001-004-005.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY NVZ002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY NVZ003.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ070.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY CAZ071>073.
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