339
FXUS65 KREV 271012
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
212 AM PST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY BUT COLDER WEATHER PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING FOG IN THE SIERRA.
* QUIET WEATHER WITH MORNING INVERSIONS LEADING TO AIR STAGNATION
IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK OVER WESTERN NV VALLEYS.
* THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ON NEW YEARS DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE SYSTEM LOOKS WEAK COMPARED TO THE
LAST ONE.
DISCUSSION
A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA AND NE
CA AS OF 2 AM THIS MORNING PER RADAR. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DWINDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SLOWLY LEAVES THE REGION.
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE TODAY ASSOCIATED TO THAT
SYSTEM, BUT ANY RAIN/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL OR NOTHING
AT ALL. ALSO FREEZING FOG IS LIKELY, MAINLY OVER SIERRA VALLEYS
THIS MORNING, ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR OUT.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WE WILL HAVE COLD WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A NORTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS COLD AIR TOWARDS NORTHERN
NV/CA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, EXPECT COLD MORNINGS AND CHILLY
AFTERNOONS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY INLAND NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES RISE TO SEASONAL ON TUE/WED, ABOVE AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.
SO, WE WILL GET TO ENJOY SOME MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF
THE YEAR. FURTHERMORE, THE QUIET WEATHER WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR MORNING INVERSIONS LEADING TO STAGNANT AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SOMETIME AROUND OR AFTER NEW
YEAR'S DAY. THE MODELS HAVE DIVERGING SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SHOWING
A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION, WHILE OTHERS ARE TAKING THEIR TIME
PUSHING THIS SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM ALSO VASTLY CHANGES AMONG ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
MEMBERS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC. HOWEVER, THE TREND THAT CAN BE SEEN
IS WETTER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING WEAKER THAN THE
ONE THAT AFFECTED US THIS PAST CHRISTMAS. WE WILL KNOW MORE AS WE
GET BETTER DATA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
-HC
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THERE WILL BE A FEW EXCEPTIONS DUE TO FZFG, WHICH IS VERY LIKELY
ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR OUT RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR KTRK/KTVL. IF FZFG DEVELOPS AT KTRK/KTVL IT COULD
LAST THROUGH 15-17Z THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VRB OR FROM THE NORTH AOB 8 KTS.
-HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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