225
FXUS65 KREV 310911
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
111 AM PST WED DEC 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* PATTERN SHIFT FROM STRONG MORNING INVERSIONS TODAY TO HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BY TONIGHT.
* STRONGER STORM BRINGS HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, STRONG RIDGE WINDS,
AND RAIN SHOWERS TO VALLEYS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY SUNDAY. SOME FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE SUSAN AND
FEATHER RIVERS.
* SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER CHOSE TO NOT INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING! SO ON THAT HUMBLING NOTE, LET'S DISCUSS WHAT WE'RE
EXPECTING, STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW FROM BAJA IS STEADILY
PUSHING NORTHWARD, AND WE'LL START TO SEE PRECIP IN THE FAR
REACHES OF MONO COUNTY AS EARLY AS NOON TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
VERY HIGH, OVER 9000' WITH SOME TAHOE BASIN LOCATIONS OVER
10,000'. BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS STORM, IT'LL BE A BIT
HARDER TO GET SPILLOVER INTO W NV BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SHOWERS WILL REACH INTO THE TAHOE BASIN BY THE EARLY
EVENING, AND NE CA AFTER SUNSET.
SOMETHING WE DON'T OFTEN DEAL WITH IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
FREEZING RAIN IN VALLEYS OF MONO COUNTY AND NE CA TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THOSE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG MORNING INVERSIONS?
KEEP THOSE IN MIND. SINCE THERE'S NOT MUCH WIND WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM, THAT COLD VALLEY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SIT THERE; THERE'S
NO MECHANISM FOR THAT TO MIX OUT JUST YET. SO, THIS MEANS SURFACES
WILL BE COLD AND RAIN THAT LIKELY FALLS WILL FREEZE EASILY UPON
CONTACT. THIS WILL MAKE ANY TRAVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR THOSE LOCATIONS VERY CHALLENGING AND SLICK.
SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW FOR EXTRA TIME TO GET TO YOUR DESTINATION.
SHOWERS WILL BE ON AND OFF THURSDAY BUT LOOK TO CLEAR OUT IN THE
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY TO ABOUT 7500' BY SUNSET. FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE
RELATIVELY CLEAR WITH A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE SECOND BIG
MOISTURE PUSH WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER IN NATURE, WITH SNOW LEVELS
NEAR OR BELOW 7000' BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, A WINTER STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TAHOE BASIN AND MONO COUNTY. PLEASE SEE
THE PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.
BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE! WITH LOW SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM COMES THE THREAT FOR RAIN ON SNOW AND THUS FLOODING
CONCERNS, MAINLY FOR NE CA. AREAL FLOODING NEAR AND ALONG THE
SUSAN RIVER WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH CNRFC FORECASTS HINTING THAT
THE SUSAN COULD REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED, THERE WON'T BE A HUGE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS FOR
THIS FIRST SYSTEM BUT AHEAD OF THE SECOND SYSTEM FRIDAY, EXPECT AN
UPTICK IN WINDS. GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH FOR
WIND PRONE LOCATIONS.
ACTIVE WEATHER STAYS ON THE MENU THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY DECIDING ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THAT
SYSTEM. STAY TUNED!
-GIRALTE
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY FOR SIERRA FRONT
TERMINALS. ISOLATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
KTRK/KTVL TODAY DUE TO FZFG UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR KMMH BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INCOMING SYSTEM.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR KTVL/KTRK TODAY, BUT MORE SO BY
THE EVENING HOURS.
FZRA IS POSSIBLE FOR KMMH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
LEAVING SURFACES SLICK. OTHERWISE, EXPECT -SHRA FOR SIERRA
TERMINALS DUE TO HIGH SNOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY.
-GIRALTE
AVALANCHE
TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT ALL AVALANCHE CENTER TERRAIN
STARTING TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
* FIRST SYSTEM: WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 9 KFT THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE DROPPING TO 8.5 KFT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ISOLATED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN MONO
COUNTY WITH 6-10 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TAHOE
BASIN MAY SEE A COUPLE INCHES AT MOST. SLRS ARE LOW (6-8:1) WITH
SWE UP TO 1.25" ALONG THE CREST, OTHERWISE 0.5-1".
* SECOND SYSTEM: COLDER WITH SNOW LEVELS STARTING AROUND 7 KFT AT
THE STORM'S ONSET LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE'S A WIDE SPREAD IN
SNOW LEVELS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 6-6.5 KFT BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. SLR'S SETTLE BACK TO 8-10:1 WITH SWE ALONG THE HIGHEST
PEAKS NEAR 3" (TAHOE BASIN) AND 1.5-2" FOR MONO COUNTY.
OTHERWISE, 1.5" FOR TAHOE AND 1-1.5" FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
MONO COUNTY. AS OF NOW, HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WITH RATES NEAR 1"/HR
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WESTERLY RIDGE WINDS OF
60-80 MPH.
-GIRALTE
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
NVZ002.
CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
CAZ072-073.
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