055
FXUS65 KREV 032130
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
130 PM PST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A MODERATE WINTER STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SIERRA SNOW
AND VALLEY RAIN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, WITH ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO RAIN ON SNOW IN NORTHEAST CA.
* AN ADDITIONAL STORM MAY BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES TO THE SIERRA,
WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY MID-LATE WEEK.
* A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS PROJECTED TO EMERGE BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND COULD LAST INTO MID-JANUARY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: OUR ONGOING WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO DELIVER
PERIODS OF SIERRA SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING HEAVIER SIERRA SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN SUNDAY-MONDAY
MORNING. AS OF THE LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE, WE'RE EXPECTING
REMAINING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 38" ABOVE 8K FT, 8-20" BETWEEN
6-8K FT, AND UP TO 6" FROM 5-6K FT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS OF
RIGHT NOW, WE'RE ALREADY SEEING RAIN SWITCH OVER TO SNOW WITHIN
HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR ELEVATIONS AS LOW AS 5500'. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE TRICKY TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT MORE ON THAT IN THE AVALANCHE
DISCUSSION. IN THE WAY OF RAIN, NOT TOO MUCH SPILLOVER WILL OCCUR
FOR THIS EVENT. LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE UP TO 0.50" OF RAIN,
DECREASING THE FURTHER EAST IN NV YOU GO (FALLON: 0.05-0.10").
WINDS TODAY WILL BE A BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE SIERRA FRONT AND WESTERN
NV WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH. SIERRA RIDGES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
GUSTS UP TO 90 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING TO 60-80 MPH RANGE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW. AFTER MONDAY, OUR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LIFT AND WE'LL DRY OUT A BIT UNTIL MID-WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BY WEDNESDAY, A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW
WILL DIVE SOUTH AND BRING US ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SUB-5000FT MID-WEEK AND 700MB TEMPS REFLECT
THAT, DIPPING DOWN TO -8 TO -10C DURING THE STORMS. THIS FAR OUT
IT'S UNCLEAR IF WE'LL SEE MUCH SPILLOVER WITH THIS STORM, BUT
CURRENT ENSEMBLES AND LONG-RANGE MODELS GIVE A 30% CHANCE FOR KRNO
AND OTHER LOWER VALLEYS TO GET AT LEAST 0.1" OF SNOW THROUGH
MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS, CURRENT CHANCES ARE AROUND
60% FOR AT LEAST 2", AND 30% FOR AT LEAST 6" ALONG THE CREST.
KEY MESSAGE 3: FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
JANUARY, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND WE DRY OUT. ENSEMBLES SHOW A
BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN US,
DEFLECTING ANYTHING WELL TO OUR NORTH. CPC'S 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK
CONCURS, SHOWING BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
* KTVL AND KTRK HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW, LIKELY TO BE ALL SNOW AFTER 00Z TODAY. KMMH HAS BEEN
LOCKED IN AT 32 DEGREES AND HAS BEEN ALL SNOW THIS MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO JUST BE SNOW THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT MAY BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SPILLOVER WILL BE LIMITED
OVERNIGHT.
* BREEZY S/SW WINDS TODAY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. FL100 WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 50KT TODAY, YIELDING LLWS AND MOUNTAIN
WAVE TURBULENCE, THEN DROP TO 30-40KT SUNDAY. SIERRA TERMINALS
AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 30KT THIS
AFTERNOON.
-JUSTIN
AVALANCHE
A WINTER STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO ALL AVALANCHE CENTER TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
* SNOW LEVELS: THEY HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING THROUGH THE MORNING
AROUND 6000-7000 FEET BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6000 FEET
WITH ONLY SNOW EXPECTED FOR ALL AVALANCHE TERRAIN FROM THIS
EVENING ONWARD.
* SNOW/SWE AMOUNTS: 1-2 FEET WITH UP TO 3 FEET LOCALLY FOR MONO
COUNTY AND THE CREST WEST OF TAHOE. SWE TOTALS BETWEEN 1.5" AND
3" THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
* SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS (SLR): HIGHER DENSITY 7-10:1 TODAY, THEN
BECOMING LESS DENSE WITH SLR'S INCREASING TO 10:1 AND POSSIBLY
UP TO 13:1, WITH COLDER AIR AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS FROM EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY.
* SNOWFALL RATES: STEADY AT 0.5-1"/HOUR WITH PERIODIC BURSTS OF UP
TO 1-2"/HOUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER
PEAKS.
* RIDGE TOP WINDS: GUSTS 70-90 MPH, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO
100 MPH AT TIMES FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
* LIGHTNING: 5-10% CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HRICH/JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY NVZ004.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY CAZ070.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON CAZ071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
MONDAY CAZ071.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY CAZ072-073.
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