559
FXUS65 KREV 041943
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1143 AM PST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THE WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SIERRA SNOW
AND VALLEY RAIN THROUGH MONDAY.
* A COLDER MIDWEEK STORM MAY BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES TO THE
SIERRA, WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
* A DRIER, WARMER WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, LASTING INTO MID-JANUARY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SIERRA SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. AS OF THE LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE, REMAINING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE UP TO 8" ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN LASSEN/PLUMAS
COUNTIES WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE DOWN TO 5500 FEET, 10-18"
ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN WITH 2-8" POSSIBLE AT
LAKE LEVEL, AND 12-24" ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN MONO COUNTY WITH 2-8"
POSSIBLE ALONG US-395. THIS STORM WILL LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA AND NE CA
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER MONDAY, OUR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT AND WE'LL DRY OUT A BIT UNTIL MID-WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BY WEDNESDAY, A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW
WILL DIVE SOUTH WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY TRACK NOW, KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS EAST OF OUR CWA. WE MAY END UP WITH MOSTLY WIND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IF THIS STORM TRACK PANS OUT, SO WE'LL
MONITOR IT IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. ONE THING THAT IS CERTAIN IS
THAT IT WILL BE A MUCH COOLER SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
SUB-5000FT MID-WEEK AND 700MB TEMPERATURES REFLECT THAT, DIPPING
DOWN TO -8 TO -10C MID-WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3: FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
JANUARY, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND WE DRY OUT. ENSEMBLES SHOW A
BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN US,
DEFLECTING ANYTHING WELL TO OUR NORTH. CPC'S 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK
CONCURS, SHOWING BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
* SIERRA TERMINALS KTRK/KTVL/KMMH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BRINGING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. WESTERN
NEVADA VALLEY TERMINALS WILL RECEIVE INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET AND WHILE TEMPERATURE START TO DROP
TONIGHT, SIERRA FRONT TERMINALS HAVE A LOW (10%) CHANCE OF
SEEING A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING BEFORE 04Z. FL100 WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 30-40KT THIS AFTERNOON, WEAKENING AFTER
00Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LLWS AND TURBULENCE TO THE
REGION.
-JUSTIN
AVALANCHE
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY ACROSS ALL
AVALANCHE CENTER TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
* SNOW LEVELS: SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR ALL AVALANCHE TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
* SNOW/SWE AMOUNTS: 8-12 INCHES WITH UP TO 24 INCHES LOCALLY FOR
MONO COUNTY AND THE CREST WEST OF TAHOE. SWE TOTALS BETWEEN 1-2"
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
* SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS (SLR): BECOMING LESS DENSE WITH SLR'S
INCREASING TO 10:1 UP TO 13:1, WITH COLDER AIR AND LOWER SNOW
LEVELS THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY.
* SNOWFALL RATES: STEADY AT 0.5-1"/HOUR WITH PERIODIC BURSTS OF UP
TO 1-1.5"/HOUR, PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER PEAKS.
* RIDGE TOP WINDS: GUSTS 40-50 MPH TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
* LIGHTNING: 5-10% CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
-JUSTIN/HRICH
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY NVZ002.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY CAZ071.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY CAZ072-073.
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