240
FXUS65 KREV 051001
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
201 AM PST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* OUR WINTER SYSTEM IS WRAPPING UP AND EXITING TODAY. LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
* A COLDER MIDWEEK SYSTEM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING COMMUTE CONCERNS.
* WARMER, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNALS FOR A COLDER SYSTEM MID-MONTH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
THE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT HAS TAKEN RESIDENCE THIS WEEKEND IS
FINALLY PACKING UP AND GETTING READY TO LEAVE. AS A PARTING GIFT,
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THESE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE CREST OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA,
FOCUSING ON LASSEN AND PLUMAS COUNTIES. THERE IS STILL A 30-45%
CHANCE TO SEE SNOW IN AND AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN, WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, ON
THE ORDER OF 1-4 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND
ELSEWHERE IN LASSEN AND PLUMAS ALONG US-395. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO A FOOT ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF
THE LASSEN COUNTY CREST.
THE SYSTEM THAT WAS TAKING SHAPE TO OUR NORTH TO SWING BY FOR
TUESDAY HAS SHOWN AN EASTERLY SHIFT IN RECENT GUIDANCE, SO
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOW RANGE 10-20% FOR FAR
NORTHERN WASHOE, FAR WESTERN LASSEN AND PLUMAS COUNTIES. AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
THAT SAME FLAVOR OF TRAJECTORY IS INFLUENCING THE SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING THE STORM
TRACK BRINGING SOME LIGHT, BRUSH-BY STYLE SHOWERS. THE RECENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION FURTHER AWAY THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, SUGGESTING WE MAY SEE MORE WIND THAN
PRECIPITATION. AS INFERRED BY THE UPDATED INFORMATION, THERE IS A
SHIFTING FORECAST THAT WILL NEED TO BE FOLLOWED IN THE COMING
DAYS TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS.
ALL OF THAT WEATHER DRAMA WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY BEYOND. WE EXPECT A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND TO EMERGE, ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT
AT THE PROSPECT OF A MID-MONTH COLD SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
FORECAST DETAIL IS LOW, AND WILL NEED MORE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT
BEFORE WE LATCH ON TO THIS FEATURE. HRICH
AVIATION
* SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR KTVL/KTRK INTO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY. STILL, SOME INSTANCES OF
TERRAIN OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE UNDER SNOW SHOWERS. LLWS WILL
REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS SIERRA TERMINALS AT LEAST THROUGH THE 18Z
HOUR TODAY. GUSTS WILL REACH UPWARDS OF 50 KTS ACROSS SIERRA
RIDGES THIS MORNING, TAPERING TO 40 KTS BY 21Z.
* FZFG MAY FILTER IN ACROSS SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AFTER 06Z UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
THIS COULD AFFECT KTRK/KRNO/KCXP/KMEV/KTVL AND HINTS OF FOG
AROUND MONO LAKE SUGGEST THERE COULD EVEN BE FOG NEAR KMMH. HRICH
AVALANCHE
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS
TAHOE BASIN AVALANCHE TERRAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
* SNOW LEVELS: SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR AVALANCHE TERRAIN ACROSS THE
TAHOE BASIN THIS MORNING.
* SNOW/SWE AMOUNTS: ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES
ABOVE 7000 FEET. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO 2
INCHES AT LAKE LEVEL. SWE TOTALS UP TO 0.10" THROUGH THIS
MORNING ABOVE 7000 FEET.
* SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS (SLR): BECOMING LESS DENSE WITH SLR'S
INCREASING TO 10:1 UP TO 13:1, WITH COLDER AIR AND LOWER SNOW
LEVELS.
* SNOWFALL RATES: PERIODIC BURSTS OF UP TO 0.25"/HOUR,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER PEAKS.
* RIDGE TOP WINDS: GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH TODAY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, TAPERING TO 40-50 MPH THIS EVENING.
* LIGHTNING: UP TO A 5% CHANCE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
TAHOE BASIN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE CREST.
-JUSTIN/HRICH
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING NVZ002.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ071.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING CAZ072.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING CAZ073.
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