989
FXUS65 KREV 052155
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
155 PM PST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN DRYING OUT TUESDAY.
* A COLDER MIDWEEK SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN AND
VALLEY SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
* WARMER, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: OUR CURRENT WINTER STORM IS WRAPPING UP TODAY WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE SIERRA, NORTH OF I-
80. THE LAST SHOWERS NEAR LASSEN/PLUMAS/SIERRA COUNTIES SHOULD
FINALLY MOVE OUT AROUND 1AM TONIGHT. THE REMAINING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT BETWEEN THE TIME OF THIS AFD AND 1AM, WITH
ONLY UP TO 2" EXPECTED WEST OF US-395 AND NORTH OF I-80. AFTER
THAT, THE LOW THAT'S PROVIDING THESE SHOWERS WILL DIVE SOUTH AND
WE'LL BE ON TO OUR NEXT SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWEEPING BY TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BRINGING LOW-END PRECIP
CHANCES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA. PRECIP CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE AROUND 20-30%, HOWEVER WHEREVER
IT DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY BE SNOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW DOWN
IN THE VALLEYS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY MORNING AT A 20-40% CHANCE OF
A TRACE. OTHERWISE, BLENDED GUIDANCE AND CAMS ARE SHOWING 2-3"
TOTAL ALONG THE CREST AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING
WILL TAKE A HIT, AND WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY COOLER. LOW TEMPS FRIDAY
MORNING IN LOWER NV VALLEYS WILL GET DOWN TO 20 DEGREES, AND
SIERRA COMMUNITIES LIKE TRUCKEE AND MAMMOTH LAKES WILL SEE SINGLE
DIGITS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: FRIDAY ONWARD, A RIDGE WILL SETUP OVER THE WESTERN
US, KEEPING OUR REGION A LITTLE WARMER THAN AVERAGE AND DRY. THIS
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH, KEEPING ALL
STORM CHANCES TO NEAR ZERO. CW3E'S IVT PLUME IS SHOWING LITTLE TO
NOTHING IN THE WAY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE, AND CPC'S 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK
IS ALSO SHOWING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIP. WE CAN SAY GOODBYE TO OUR BELOVED SNOW AND WINTER TEMPS
FOR A LITTLE WHILE AFTER THIS WEEK.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.
LOW CUMULUS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT, THOUGH CLEAR SKIES ARE BECOMING
LIKELY OVERNIGHT. IF SKIES DO CLEAR, FZFG WILL LIKELY FILL INTO
SIERRA VALLEYS, INCLUDING KTRK, KTVL, AND EVEN NEAR KMMH. LOWER NV
VALLEYS MAY SEE PATCHY FZFG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INCLUDING KRNO,
KCXP, AND KMEV.
-JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ071.
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