887
FXUS65 KREV 061045
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRYING OUT TODAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS. WIND GUSTS INCREASE ALONG
RIDGES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* A COLDER, YET MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, SETTING US UP FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES OVER VALLEYS.
* WARMER, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A TROUGH POSITIONED JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MIGRATE SOUTH ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AS IT IS SWEPT INTO THE
WESTERLY FLOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THIS IS US
SAYING GOOD BYE TO THAT RECENT SYSTEM, AND MAKING ROOM FOR THE
NEXT. BEHIND THE LOW, THE TROUGHING PATTERN HAS ALLOWED FOR
COLDER, DENSER AIR TO FILL IN, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS. IT IS THOSE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS THAT WILL BRING
GUSTY RIDGE WINDS LATER TONIGHT, HINTING AT THE INCOMING
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW, WITH THAT COLDER AIR REINFORCED.
THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE NORTH OF US-50, AND ALONG THE
SIERRA. PEAKS TO THE WEST OF THE TAHOE BASIN AND NORTH TO SURPRISE
VALLEY IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES (50-80%) ARE FOUND FOR
ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE MOST AREAS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WILL SEE LITTLE
TO NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION, WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED SNOW BAND TO SET UP NEAR THE I-80/US-50
CORRIDORS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN MUCH LESS
MOISTURE THAN RECENT STORMS, WITH QPF RANGING ONLY 0.1-0.3" AND
SNOW AMOUNTS LIMITED TO 1-3" WITH THE HIGHEST PEAKS RECEIVING UP
TO 4" OF NEW SNOWFALL. THIS IS A QUICK-HITTING STORM, AND WILL BE
MOVED ALONG AS EARLY AS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH RESIDUAL GUSTY RIDGES AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS ALONG THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE SIERRA FRONT AND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
MOVES OVER LAS VEGAS. RIDGE GUSTS WILL REACH 65 MPH, WITH LEESIDE
VALLEYS GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30 MPH.
BENIGN WEATHER TAKES OVER FRIDAY, AND WILL HOLD UNDER A RIDGING
PATTERN THAT WILL TAKE US INTO MID-JANUARY. CLEAR SKIES, WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INVERSIONS IN WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. HRICH
AVIATION
* AREAS OF FZFG ARE DEVELOPING AROUND KTRK/KTVL AND EVEN PATCHY
AREAS AROUND KMMH. FZFG IS FORECASTED TO LIFT AROUND 17-18Z
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
* WIND GUSTS ALONG RIDGES WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT EARLY
WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 35-40 KTS. HRICH
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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