543
FXUS65 KREV 260946
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
146 AM PST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A SLOW, GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BRING BACK SOME VALLEY
INVERSIONS THIS WEEK.
* A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY ALONG THE SIERRA CREST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
* DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DURING THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING, WHICH IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LARGER UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS CAUSING THE INCREASED HIGH CLOUD COVER SEEN
OVER THE REGION ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR RIDGE WINDS TO GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE
DAY BEFORE IT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION TAKING THE CLOUD COVER WITH
IT. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TODAY EXPECT TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER
50S RANGE IN WESTERN NV AND NORTHEASTERN CA WHILE SIERRA COMMUNITIES
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S RANGE. MONDAY NIGHT'S LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BEING GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
SIERRA DROPPING DOWN TO THE TEENS.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS SETUP ALOFT, GUSTIER RIDGE WINDS UP TO
AROUND 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING
GOING THROUGH THE DAY. BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30-50% CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN CA WEST OF US-395 ON TUESDAY
EVENING GOING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING THE SAME TIME,
THERE IS ~10-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE TAHOE BASIN
GOING DOWN TO MONO COUNTY WITH THE HIGHER END CHANCES SEEN AT THE
SIERRA CREST. ANTICIPATING LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AND
THUS NO MAJOR IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE
TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST CAUSING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
TAPER OFF.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE
WARMING TREND ALSO CONTINUES WITH FORECAST DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ON SATURDAY,
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NV INCLUDING THE RENO METRO AREA HAVE AROUND A
30-50% CHANCE OF A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 60 DEGREES OR HIGHER.
HOWEVER, THE LONG-TERM GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SIGNS OF THE PATTERN
CHANGING ON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO RETURN FOR NORTHEASTERN CA AND THE SIERRA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS GOING FORWARD AS THERE IS STILL SOME GOOD
MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREA TAF
SITES TODAY. RIDGE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 25-30 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTING TO DECREASE A BIT LATER IN
THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR NE CA AND THE SIERRA
SEEN IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED
RIDGE WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KTS. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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