151
FXUS65 KREV 290916
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
116 AM PST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE AREA.
* A SLOW, GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.
* A WEAK SYSTEM ON SUNDAY MAY BRING BREEZY WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NE CA AND N NV, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW.
DISCUSSION
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS, A RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER THE W CONUS WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAVELING THROUGH THE
FLOW OVER N CA. FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS PATTERN MORE OR LESS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO PERSIST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE STAYING WITHIN THE UPPER LEVELS ALONG WITH THESE
DAILY WEAK DISTURBANCES, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH CLOUD
COVER IN THE SKIES EACH DAY. HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT EXPECT TO
INTERRUPT THE CURRENT WARMING TREND WITHIN THE REGION. THE LATEST
NBM PROBABILITIES BEGIN TO SHOW A 30-40% CHANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
TO REACH 60 DEGREES OR ABOVE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS ON FRIDAY THAT
INCREASE TO AROUND 50-80% BY SATURDAY. SIERRA COMMUNITIES LOOK TO
WARM TO BETWEEN THE MIDDLE 40S AND THE MIDDLE 50S BY THE WEEKEND
AS WELL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH
FORECAST LOWS FORECAST IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND.
AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CHANGE IN
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT
TO PASS THROUGH AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL INTERRUPT THE WARMING
TREND. WHILE TEMPERATURES COME DOWN SLIGHTLY BY A FEW DEGREES ON
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECT TO STILL BE ABOVE
NORMALS FOR THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO CAUSE
SIERRA RIDGE WINDS TO PICK UP ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40
MPH. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES: LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN NE CA AND N CA FOR LATE SUNDAY, BUT THERE
STILL IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THEM OCCURRING. THE CHANCES HAVE
DIMINISHED A BIT BEING BETWEEN ~5-15% AT BEST WITH THE HIGHER END
CHANCES BEING IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. BY LATE MONDAY GOING
THROUGH MIDWEEK, LONG-TERM GUIDANCE PROJECTS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING CAUSING MORE DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH ANOTHER
WARMING TREND. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS PERSIST AT ALL AREA TAF
SITES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE IN THE REGION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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