437
FXUS65 KREV 181023
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
223 AM PST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS AND RECENT HEAVY SNOW WILL PRODUCE
LINGERING TRAVEL IMPACTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
* ANOTHER QUICK MOVING STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS MAINLY FOR THE SIERRA,
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR WESTERN NV ON THURSDAY.
* AFTER A BREAK IN STORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY,
MORE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN LATE SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THIS WEEK'S BIG WINTER STORM IS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS AS LIGHTER
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY PUSHED SOUTH OF I-80. EVEN
AFTER THIS SNOW ENDS, WE'LL CONTINUE TO HAVE SLICK ROADS AND
TRAVEL DELAYS THROUGH THIS MORNING'S COMMUTE WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW FREEZING. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
OFFER A SMALL WINDOW TO DIG OUT FROM ALL THIS SNOW, ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MODEST ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS (UP TO 3") REMAIN IN
THE PICTURE NEAR THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CA.
ONE MORE STORM IS LINING UP TO BRING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ON WHAT
HAS ALREADY FALLEN. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM ISN'T AS STRONG COMPARED
TO THIS CURRENT STORM, IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ALL
ELEVATIONS, AND AGGRAVATE THE ONGOING TRAVEL IMPACTS. THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME CHALLENGES IN THIS STORM'S TRACK, ALTHOUGH LATEST
GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A TRACK THAT BRINGS THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE SIERRA/NORTHEAST CA WITH NEW SNOW OF A FOOT OR MORE NEAR THE
CREST AND SEVERAL INCHES DOWN TO LAKE LEVEL IN THE TAHOE BASIN,
WESTERN MONO COUNTY AND NORTHEAST CA, STARTING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING. ENHANCED SNOW BANDS FROM
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHORT
DURATION 1+"/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
UNLIKE THIS RECENT STORM, WINDS ARE LESS LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR,
WITH SIERRA RIDGE TOP GUSTS GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR 55-70 MPH AND
SURFACE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 25 MPH OR LESS.
FOR WESTERN NV, SNOW COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH ACROSS THE RENO-
CARSON REGION TO PRODUCE SLICK TRAVEL FOR THE THURSDAY AM COMMUTE,
THEN SNOW COVERAGE INCREASES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AND
30-60% PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 2" FOR THE MAIN CITIES,
CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO INTRODUCE A NEW WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. FOOTHILL SITES INCLUDING VIRGINIA CITY COULD RECEIVE UP
TO 6" OF NEW SNOW.
THE STORM APPEARS TO TAKE ON A "TONOPAH LOW" CHARACTER FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH AN AREA OF SNOW WRAPPING AROUND
THE US-95 CORRIDOR OF WEST CENTRAL NV. GIVEN THE MAJORITY OF THE
SNOW REACHING THESE AREAS WHEN THE SUN ANGLE IS HIGHER IN THE
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MOST COMMUNITIES,
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE HARDER TO OCCUR. CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE MAIN US-95/US-95A COMMUNITIES (LOVELOCK, FALLON,
YERINGTON, HAWTHORNE) HAVING A 20% OR LESS CHANCE OF REACHING THE
SAME 2" THRESHOLD THURSDAY.
AS THIS STORM DEPARTS AND SNOW ENDS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES AGAIN PLUNGE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, SO
PLAN ON SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO CARRY OVER INTO THE FRIDAY AM
COMMUTE.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, A LARGER WINDOW TO DIG OUT OF THIS WEEK'S
SNOW IS STILL OPENING UP. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE SO IT WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS OF MELTING EVEN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. SUNDAY BRINGS MORE NOTABLE WARMING, BUT ANOTHER STORM
IS ON THE HORIZON LATER IN THE DAY. AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP NEXT WEEK, MORE LIKELY TO BE MILDER
STORMS WITH MORE RAIN THAN SNOW FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND A HIGHER
DENSITY SNOW FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES. THE DETAILS ARE QUITE MURKY
WITH TIMING AND STORM TRACKS, BUT AS AN EARLY HEADS UP, LOWER
ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST CA THAT RECEIVED HEAVY SNOW
COULD BE DEALING WITH ACCELERATED SNOWMELT RUNOFF, IF A BAND OF
DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE PERSISTS FOR A LONGER TIME SPAN. MJD
AVIATION
* SIERRA TERMINALS (KTVL, KTRK, KMMH): ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL WILL
DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WITH SHORT INTERVALS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, LINGERING AVIATION CONCERNS CONTINUE DUE TO
THIS STRONG STORM'S LARGE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS (70+% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 4") AND WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE SNOW ARRIVING AROUND 12Z, PEAKING BETWEEN
17-00Z, AND ENDING BY 06Z.
* WESTERN NV TERMINALS (KRNO, KCXP, KMEV): LINGERING -SHSN
TAPERING OFF BY 12Z EARLY THIS MORNING AND PATCHY LOW IFR CIGS
UNTIL AROUND 16Z. A SHORT WINDOW OF IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARRIVES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW BRINGS
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH A 20-40%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST 2" OF RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE SNOW ARRIVING AROUND 12Z, PEAKING BETWEEN
17-22Z, AND ENDING BY 04Z. MJD
AVALANCHE
OUR MAJOR, MULTI-DAY WINTER STORM COMES TO A CLOSE THIS MORNING,
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THOUGH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT (LESS THAN 4"
OF NEW SNOW AFTER DAYBREAK). ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
* SNOWFALL TOTALS AND RATES: FOR THE THURSDAY SYSTEM, 6-12" WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 18" ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE TAHOE BASIN.
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1"/HR, BUT MAY EXCEED 1"/HR IN THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.
* SLRS AND SWE: LOW CONFIDENCE ON SLRS WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM, BEST
GUESS 13-15:1 RATIOS DUE TO THE ORIGIN OF THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. SLRS MAY DROP TO 12:1 OR STAY AROUND 16:1, AS
SEEN WITH THIS PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM. SWE RANGES FROM 0.5-1",
THOUGH 1" WILL MOSTLY BE SEEN ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE TAHOE
BASIN.
* RIDGETOP GUSTS: SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 50-60 MPH THURSDAY WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.
-GIRALTE
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY NVZ002-
003.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ071>073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY
CAZ071>073.
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