577
FXUS65 KREV 192141
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
141 PM PST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING WITH
HAZARDOUS ROADS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
* COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SUB-ZERO WIND
CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
* POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A WARM STORM WITH RAIN LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS BUT
SPECIFICS REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.
DISCUSSION
* ONGOING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD. PER
HREF, SOME BANDED SNOWS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF 0.5-1"/HOUR
RATES IN W NEVADA THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE AFTER MIDNIGHT SKIES
SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR WITH COLD TEMPERATURES PROJECTED FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ESPECIALLY IN
SNOW COVERED AREAS. ROADS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SNOW/ICE COVERED
FOR THE FRIDAY AM COMMUTE, SO PLAN FOR SOME EXTRA TIME AND
DELAYS EVEN IF AN ADVISORY FOR NEW SNOW ISN'T IN EFFECT.
* QUIET BUT COOL WEEKEND EXPECTED FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN. SATURDAY MORNING HAS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR COLDER
TEMPS VS FRIDAY AM, WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED PLUS THAT NEW SNOW
COVER. NEAR TO SUB-ZERO TEMPS IN SIERRA VALLEYS OR EVEN THE
CARSON VALLEY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE A FACTOR UP IN THE SIERRA
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS ALOFT DON'T ENTIRELY
SLOW DOWN, REMAINING NW/W/SW DIRECTION. NBM HAS WIND CHILLS -10
TO -25F IN THE MORNINGS FOR SOME OF THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA SKI RESORTS.
* NEXT STORM IS PROJECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS ONE
IS DECIDEDLY WARMER WITH MORE OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER COMPONENT
PER CW3E DIAGNOSTICS. THE IVT ORIENTATION DOESN'T BECOME SUPER
FAVORABLE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THE VECTORS ARE MORE W/SW. NBM
INDICATING 7000-8000' RAIN-SNOW LINES TUESDAY AND WITH AN AR
FACTOR, QPF WOULD LIKELY BE TOWARD THE MID-HIGH END OF THE NBM
PROBABILISTIC SPACE - SO THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR 2-3" RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 0.5 TO 1" IN W NEVADA. THIS CERTAINLY INTRODUCES
CONCERN FOR FLOODING WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK, BUT AT THIS POINT
WE'RE TOO FAR OUT TO KNOW HOW ALL THESE THINGS WILL INTERACT.
BUT AT THIS POINT PROBABLY NOT A BAD IDEA TO CLEAN OUT PLUGGED
AND SNOW BLOCKED DRAINS AND GUTTERS THIS WEEKEND. POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR RISES ON STREAMS/RIVERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT
TBD ON EXTENT.
-CHRIS
AVIATION
* CURRENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, ESPECIALLY
AFTER 0Z AS LOW PRESSURE CAUSING THE SNOW MOVES EASTWARD. CAN'T
RULE OUT (30%) PERIODS OF IFR SNOW AFTER 0Z THROUGH ABOUT 3Z
AROUND RTS-RNO-NFL AND MMH PER LATEST HREF GUIDANCE SHOWING
BANDED SNOW SHOWERS. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1-2" IF BANDING SETS
UP JUST RIGHT.
* SCATTERED TO BROKEN IFR-MVFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE CLEARING ON FRIDAY. OVERALL QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
-CHRIS
AVALANCHE
* SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SIERRA, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.2 TO 0.4" OF SWE AND SLRS ON THE
HIGHER END OF THE SPECTRUM 14-17:1. PROBABILITY OF 1"/HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES ALSO DIMINISHES, WITH A TOKEN 10-20% CHANCE ALONG
THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING. CURRENT STRONG W/SW
WINDS GUSTING 60-80 MPH ON THE RIDGES SHOULD ALSO DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST, WITH GUSTS
20-40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DIRECTION SHIFTS W/NW.
* UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WINDS
ALOFT DON'T ENTIRELY SLOW DOWN, SO WE'LL SEE RATHER COLD WIND
CHILLS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST (DOWN TO -10 TO -25F FRI & SAT
AM) AND MOUNTAIN TOP GUSTS 30-50 MPH OUT OF THE NW/W/SW MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY DAYTIME PROBABLY HAS THE LOWEST WIND SPEEDS
OF ALL THREE DAYS.
-CHRIS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ002-003.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ071>073.
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