270
FXUS65 KREV 201003
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
203 AM PST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* FAIR WEATHER WITH COLD TEMPERATURES PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS NEAR THE SIERRA
CREST.
* POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A WARMER STORM WITH RAIN FOR
VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. FLOODING POTENTIAL EXISTS, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW.
DISCUSSION
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS AFFECTING THE REGION MOVING EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS IT DOES SO, LIGHT AND ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF
THE NV BASIN AND RANGE. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DONE BY SUNRISE, AS THE HREF SHOWS ALL OF THE LINGERING
ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NV AND UT.
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE COLD DAYS. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES THIS WEEKEND OVER THE REGION LEADING TO
MOSTLY DRY, BUT COLD WEATHER, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNINGS. MORNING
LOWS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR WESTERN NV AND
NE CA, SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE TAHOE BASIN, AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO FOR MONO COUNTY. WIND CHILLS IN THE SIERRA WILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, WHERE
WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO -35F ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF
MONO COUNTY HAVE A 60-90% CHANCE OF SEEING WIND CHILLS BELOW -10F
THIS MORNING PER NBM GUIDANCE. CHANCES TOMORROW MORNING ARE VERY
LOCALIZED FOR VALLEYS NEAR BRIDGEPORT AND MAMMOTH LAKES. WIND
CHILLS IMPROVE TOMORROW AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP THIS WEEKEND.
WESTERN NV, NE CA, AND THE TAHOE BASIN WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS IN
THE TEENS, WITH THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO TAKE A VERY LEISURE TRACK AS IT
DESCENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS FOR
PORTIONS OF NE CA INCLUDING THE SURPRISE VALLEY, WHERE THERE IS A
50-80% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A
20-50% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6000
FT FOR NE CA BOTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL IT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE PACNW AND BC
BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, THIS SYSTEM IS
PULLING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO ITS SOUTH, WHICH WILL BE CROSSING
OVER THE SIERRA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THEREFORE, EXPECT MORE
SNOW FOR THE SIERRA ABOVE 7-8 KFT WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW THAT
THRESHOLD. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN OVER SNOW WILL LEAD TO RISES
AND FAST FLOWS OVER RIVERS AND CREEKS. ALTHOUGH, IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL IF WE WILL SEE RIVER FLOODING. WE ARE UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW
MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE, BECAUSE IT IS TOO FAR OUT AS RELATED
IMPACTS WOULD START BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANYWAY, BASED ON THE
ACCUMULATED SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THIS COULD LEAD TO ISSUES
IF THERE ARE NO CLEAR PATHS IN URBAN AREAS FOR THE WATER TO
FOLLOW.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM, WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT
FOR THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER QUICK SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
-HC
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END
AROUND SUNRISE. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY NEAR SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING THRU 13Z. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING AT KTRK. OTHERWISE, DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB WINDS.
-HC
AVALANCHE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS ALOFT SLOWLY
DECREASING. REGARDLESS, WIND CHILLS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST NEAR
THE SAC AREA WILL BE AROUND 0 TO 10F, WHILE ESAC AND BAC WILL BE
DOWN TO -10 TO -35F THIS MORNING WITH RIDGETOP GUSTS 10 TO 40 MPH
OUT OF THE NW/W/SW. WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO -15F RETURN EACH MORNING
THIS WEEKEND. BY MONDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BRINGS MORE
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, THIS
SYSTEM IS WARMER AND MAY LEAD TO RAIN OVER SNOW IN ELEVATIONS
BELOW 7 TO 8 KFT.
-HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page