694
FXUS65 KREV 210915
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
115 AM PST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS
NEAR THE SIERRA CREST WITH GUSTY BREEZES.
* ANOTHER STORM ARRIVES LATE ON MONDAY WITH RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FLOODING POTENTIAL
EXISTS, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
DISCUSSION
OUR BREAK BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE LONGER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
HAS SLOWED DOWN. CURRENTLY, SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH
CLOUDS IN THE REGION, BUT THOSE ARE QUICKLY MOVING EAST LEADING TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG IN
PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA, MAINLY THE MARTIS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, MORE HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE REGION.
THIS WEEKEND, WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COLD, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNINGS. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WIND CHILLS IN
THE SIERRA WILL BE WARMER WITH THE CREST RANGING BETWEEN -5 TO
-15F. THE REST OF THE SIERRA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW, SUNDAY, WITH A BRUSH
BY WEAK SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST. IT WILL LEAD TO INCREASES OF
WINDS ALOFT ACROSS RIDGETOPS ON BOTH DAYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF NE CA, INCLUDING THE SURPRISE VALLEY,
WHERE THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 40 MPH ON SUNDAY. THE
PROBABILITIES HAVE COME DOWN AS ENSEMBLE DATA HAS THE SYSTEM
FARTHER AWAY THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY FAIR ACROSS THE AREA, AS
THE UPPER LOW TAKES LONGER TO MAKE LANDFALL, AND ITS NEW PATH IS
MORE INTO BC, THAN THE PACNW. THEREFORE, NE CA MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THIS SHIFT TO
THE NORTH IS ALLOWING FOR A MORE WARMER AIRMASS TO BE ADVECTED
TOWARDS US RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOW LEVELS UP TO 8 TO 10 KFT FROM
THE 7-8 KFT WE HAD YESTERDAY. FURTHERMORE, THIS IS ALSO CHANGING
THE TRACK OF THE AR AND TAKING US OUT OF THE CORE OF THE
PRECIPITATION. THUS THE TREND IS LOOKING DRIER TOO. HOWEVER, IT
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING RISES AND FASTER-FLOWS OVER RIVERS
AND STREAMS. IT IS STILL EARLY TO SAY IF WE WILL SEE RIVER
FLOODING TOO, AS THE LATEST FORECAST HAS PUSHED THE CHANCES LATER
IN THE WEEK. ANYWAY, RAIN OVER SNOW WILL CREATE ISSUES FOR THOSE
THAT HAVEN'T CLEARED THEIR SNOW NEXT WEEK.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH, SOME AREAS MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH IMPACTS FROM THE
SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT
MAY TAKE LONGER TO GO BACK TO TYPICAL FLOWS.
-HC
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KTRK BETWEEN 08Z TO AROUND
15Z DUE TO FZFG. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT
BECOMING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS IN THE SIERRA, WHILE SIERRA FRONT TERMINALS KEEP
WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS. LLWS AND TURBULENCE ARE LIKELY DUE
TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
-HC
AVALANCHE
NO SNOW IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS TODAY: RIDGETOP GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH OUT OF THE W/SW WITH
WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO -15F IN THE MORNING.
SUNDAY: WIND GUSTS BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WINDS 50 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES
WITH WIND CHILLS OF 0 TO -10F. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.
LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY: THE NEXT STORM ARRIVES WITH MORE SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS WARMER
AND MAY LEAD TO RAIN OVER SNOW IN ELEVATIONS BELOW 7.5 TO 10 KFT.
THIS IS THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
-HC/EL
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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