967
FXUS65 KREV 212255
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
255 PM PST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS NEAR
THE SIERRA CREST WITH GUSTY BREEZES.
* THE NEXT IMPACTFUL STORM ARRIVES LATE ON MONDAY WITH RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FLOODING
POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT, BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
WHEN LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS, AN UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH SOME SMALL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE UPPER AIR FLOW. BECAUSE OF THIS PATTERN ALOFT, DRY
WEATHER PERSISTS TODAY WITH A GOOD AMOUNT HIGH CLOUD COVER SEEN OVER
W NV AND NE CA. THE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE
REGION MAY SEE SOME LESSER CLOUD COVER GOING INTO THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS IN THE SIERRA CREST AREAS OF
MONO COUNTY WILL DROP AS LOW AS -5F TONIGHT WITH A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STAYING ABOVE ZERO.
THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO TODAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS WINDS INCREASING WITH A SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE NW CONUS. IN THE PORTIONS OF REGION CLOSEST TO THE
SYSTEM (NE CA AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY), THE LATEST NBM RUN SHOWS
A 40-60% CHANCE OF GUSTS OF 40+ MPH. SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS COULD
ALSO TOP OFF SOMEWHERE AROUND 50 MPH WITH THE HIGHEST PEAKS
REACHING AROUND 70 MPH. PLEASE KEEP THIS IN MIND IN CASE YOU ARE
IN THESE AREAS TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY LOOK
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. WINDS DO LOOK
TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT, SO MINIMUM WIND CHILLS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE
FREEZING ALBEIT ONLY A FEW DEGREES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
MONO COUNTY.
THE WARMING TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK WITH
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY STAYING DRY. BUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO MOVE INTO NE CA THAT
LATER SPREAD BOTH SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD GOING INTO THE NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BC SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST IN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL FUNNEL A GOOD
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF CA. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE EXPANDS INTO THE SIERRA FRONT ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
NV BASIN AND RANGE SEEING THEIR CHANCES AROUND BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHEN LOOKING AT THE CENTER FOR
WESTERN WEATHER AND WATER EXTREMES (CW3E) ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR)
LANDFALL TOOL, THE PROBABILITY OF INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
(IVT) GREATER THAN 250 KG/MS IS AROUND 100% IN NE CA AND THE
SIERRA ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN YOU MIGHT ASK?
THIS STORM SHOWS SIGNS TO BE AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT AND WILL
BRING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO SIERRA CREST...ON TOP OF THE
SNOW THAT RECENTLY FELL. WHEN LOOKING AT THE NBM QPF
PROBABILITIES, THE SIERRA CREST AROUND THE TAHOE REGION SEES
CURRENTLY SEES A 30-40% CHANCE FOR 2 INCHES OR MORE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THIS STORM. AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A WARMER STORM, SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO START AROUND 8-8.5 KFT LATE MONDAY AND RISE HIGHER
GOING INTO TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST HOLDS, HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
START WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY (THE
EXCEPTION BEING IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE EASTERN SIERRA AS
THEY MAY STAY ALL SNOW) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY RAIN WHILE
VALLEY AREAS STAY WITH A RAIN P-TYPE. STRONGER RIDGE WINDS
GUSTING UP TO AROUND 100 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL.
IT STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR SURE IF THERE WILL BE DEFINITE
FLOODING ISSUES WITH THIS EARLY WEEK STORM, BUT THE ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF DUE TO SNOWMELT COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS
ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEVERAL OF THE RIVER GAGES IN THE
AREA ARE SHOWING RISES IN THEIR LATEST FORECAST INCLUDING THE
WEST FORK CARSON RIVER WHICH SHOWS A 5-25% CHANCE OF REACHING
MONITOR STAGE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IN CASE THE FLOODING
THREAT INCREASES. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS LOOK TO FOLLOW THIS
STORM BY THURSDAY THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SIERRA WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS THOUGH KMMH HAS MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FZFG OCCURRING TONIGHT
FOR KTRK WITH FORECAST CALLING FOR THE INCREASED SURFACE WINDS
AND HINDERING FOG FORMATION. NOT RULING IT OUT COMPLETELY IN CASE
WINDS DO NOT PAN OUT AS EXPECTED. W NV TAF SITES LOOK TO HAVE
GENERALLY WINDS UNDER 10 KTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMEV WHICH MAY
SEE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. WHILE SIERRA TERMINALS SEE LLWS AND TURBULENCE PERSIST,
SIERRA FRONT TERMINALS LOOK TO HAVE LLWS BEGIN AROUND 22/05Z THAT
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING
LATE MONDAY GOING INTO MIDWEEK. -078
AVALANCHE
NO SNOW IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS AND WIND CHILLS TODAY INTO TONIGHT: RIDGETOP GUSTS UP TO 50 TO
60 MPH OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON THAT DECREASE GOING INTO THE
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE ZERO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHICH COULD DROP DOWN TO AROUND -5F.
WINDS AND WIND CHILLS FOR SUNDAY: WIND GUSTS INCREASE A BIT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50-60 MPH WITH 70 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES. WITH WINDS DECREASING GOING
INTO THE NIGHT, OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS CURRENTLY LOOK TO STAY ABOVE
ZERO OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY AND BEYOND: THE NEXT STORM ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND LOOKS TO
PEAK ON TUESDAY WITH MORE SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS UP TO AROUND 100 MPH AT THE PEAKS. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS
WARMER AND MAY LEAD TO RAIN OVER SNOW IN ELEVATIONS BELOW 7.5 TO
10 KFT. WHILE SNOW LEVELS START TO COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF BY EVENING THOUGH THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LATEST
NBM QPF PROBABILITIES SHOW A ~30-40% CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OR GREATER
AT THE SIERRA CREST FROM THE TAHOE REGION NORTHWARD LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EASTERN SIERRA SEEING A 10-20% CHANCE.
-078/HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page