524
FXUS65 KREV 221029
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
229 AM PST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND JUST BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST WITH GUSTY BREEZES.
* THE NEXT IMPACTFUL STORM ARRIVES ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FLOODING
POTENTIAL PERSISTS WITH THIS WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT, BUT
FLOODING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
* WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE HINTS OF A WEAK SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A MASSIVE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA REMAINS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AFFECTING OUR AREA STARTS TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. THE RIDGE APPEARS TO MOSTLY
REMAIN STATIONARY WHICH WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE PACNW
DOWN INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM
THAT LOW IN THE E PACIFIC SKIRTS THROUGH NORTHERN CA INTO OR.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA (RIDGETOP) WHERE WINDS TO 80 MPH ARE
LIKELY TODAY. NE CA FROM NORTHWESTERN LASSEN INTO THE SURPRISE
VALLEY WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST GUSTS TO 35 TO 45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A 40-70% CHANCE OF WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE REGION WILL HAVE MORE TYPICAL WINDS IN
THE 20-35 MPH RANGE WITH WIND-PRONE AREAS UP TO 40 MPH. RAIN
CHANCES UP TO 20% ARE MOSTLY RESTRICTED TO WESTERN LASSEN. MONDAY
WILL HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT WITH RAIN CHANCES UP TO 30% IN
THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY, AND WEAKER WINDS.
THE LOW SPLITS ON TUESDAY SENDING A SHORTWAVE TOWARDS BRITISH
COLUMBIA AT THE SAME TIME THE AR REACHES THE WEST COAST.
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR HAS THIS AR CLASSIFIED AS WEAK FOR
SIERRA FOOTHILL/SIERRA FRONT AREAS WITH VALUES RANGING FROM
250-350 KG/MS. ANYWAY, THIS AR BRINGS A WARM AIRMASS, AND THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGHER SNOW LEVELS TO 9 TO 10 KFT.
THEREFORE, THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT WITH SNOW RESTRICTED
TO AREAS ABOVE 10 KFT. THOSE AREAS COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH A 20-50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 4" IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS WE HAVE A HEFTY SNOWPACK FROM OUR
LAST STORM. RAIN OVER SNOW WILL LEAD TO QUICKER RUNOFF, ESPECIALLY
FOR URBAN AREAS. SO, MAKE SURE THAT PATHS ARE CLEAR OF SNOW TO
REDUCE THE RISK OF WATER PONDING ON LOW LYING AREAS. RIVERS AND
STREAMS WILL SEE RISES, ESPECIALLY OVER NE CA FROM THE SUSAN,
MIDDLE FORK OF THE FEATHER AND THE PIT RIVER. CHANCES FOR RIVER
FLOODING ARE STILL LOW FOR MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT 5% STARTING ON
TUESDAY.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AS 700
MB WINDS REACH 50 TO 60 KTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SIERRA CREST GUSTS
AROUND 100+ MPH, WHILE GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ARE LIKELY IN WIND-PRONE
AREAS. WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE SLOWLY
TAKES OVER.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH FLOWS IN RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY.
-HC
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY FOR
FZFG NEAR KTRK IS VERY LOW DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT. RIDGETOP
LEVEL WINDS OF 50-75 KTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. THEN
WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THEY MOVE NORTH TOWARDS NE CA. AT THE
SURFACE, LIGHT AND VRB WINDS PERSIST FOR SIERRA FRONT TERMINALS
AND KMMH. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KTS ARE LIKELY AT KTRK-KTVL AND FOR THE NV BASIN AND RANGE.
LLWS AND TURBULENCE CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ENDING
AROUND 18-20Z. HOWEVER, ISOLATED LLWS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING.
-HC
AVALANCHE
NO SNOW IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.
WIND AND WIND CHILLS TODAY: WIND GUSTS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50-60 MPH WITH 80 MPH POSSIBLE
ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT LEADING TO WIND
CHILLS ABOVE ZERO.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE NEXT STORM ARRIVES ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND PEAKS ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN AND MORE HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
ABOVE 9 TO 10 KFT AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS UP TO 90-110 MPH AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. SNOW LEVELS START TO COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY, WHEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF. ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW SHOWER
CHANCES GO INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A 30-40% CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OF
RAIN OR GREATER EXISTS AT THE SIERRA CREST FROM THE TAHOE BASIN
NORTHWARD BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE EASTERN
SIERRA HAVING A 10-20% CHANCE. RIDGETOP WINDS DECREASE ON
WEDNESDAY TO 50 TO 80 MPH.
-078/HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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