356
FXUS65 KREV 222248
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
248 PM PST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON.
* THE NEXT IMPACTFUL STORM ARRIVES ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FLOODING POTENTIAL
PERSISTS WITH THIS WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT, BUT FLOODING
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
* WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE HINTS OF A WEAK SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF
BC TODAY, THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS PROGRESSED EAST OF THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA.
ALSO WITHIN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SEEN OVER WA/OR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN ALOFT, DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE AREAS SEEING GUSTIER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON (SIERRA
RIDGES, NE CA, AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY). AREA LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT EXPECT TO BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA SEEING THE UPPER TEENS. WITH LESSER WINDS
OVERNIGHT, AREA WIND CHILLS EXPECT TO STAY ABOVE ZERO.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GOING FOR MOST OF MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMBING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN W NV WHILE THE SIERRA
COMMUNITIES HAVE THE 40S AND 50S ON TAP. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THEN BEGIN TO CREEP INTO THE SIERRA AND NE CA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. FORECAST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SPLITTING INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT
MOVES MORE INTO THE PACIFIC AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE PACNW ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT THE CW3E
AR LANDFALL TOOL, THE PROBABILITIES FOR IVT VALUES OF 250 KG/MS
CONTINUE TO BE VERY HIGH SIGNALING A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE AT THEIR
PEAK ON TUESDAY WITH 70-90% CHANCES IN THE SIERRA AND NE CA,
40-60% IN THE SIERRA FRONT, AND 10-30% IN THE NV BASIN AND RANGE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF IN THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THE INCREASED INFLUX OF AR
MOISTURE IS TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS CA WITH LESS OF AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. AS SUCH, THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF EXPECTED FOR THE SYSTEM LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EXPECT TO STAY WEST OF THE CREST. HOWEVER, THE SIERRA
CREST PORTIONS OF THE TAHOE REGION STILL DO SEE SOME GOOD QPF
POSSIBLE WITH A 15-25% NBM PROBABILITY OF GETTING 2+ INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE EASTERN SIERRA CREST SEEING A <10%
PROBABILITY FOR 2+ INCHES AS WELL. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAHOE
BASIN AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF LASSEN COUNTY
WEST OF US-395 SEE A 20-50% CHANCE OF 0.5 INCHES OF QPF DURING
THIS SYSTEM. THE SIERRA FRONT LOOKS TO SEE AROUND A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH WHILE THE NV BASIN AND RANGE WILL HAVE AROUND 0.1 INCHES
OR LESS WITH THE POTENTIAL SHOWERS IN ITS PORTION. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR SOME POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE
PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS SNOWMELT DURING THIS SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS
CLIMB TO ABOVE 9-10 KFT ON TUESDAY WHEN THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, ALLOWING MOST OF THE REGION TO SEE A
P-TYPE OF RAIN. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA THOUGH WILL
SEE HEAVY WET SNOW WITH SLRS OF 2-6:1. THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY SEE A ~20-40% NBM SNOWFALL PROBABILITY OF 4
INCHES OR GREATER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE STRONG WINDS IT WILL BRING
TO THE REGION PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY. THE SIERRA CREST MAY
EXPERIENCE GUSTS OVER 100 MPH, WHILE WIND PRONE AREAS MAY HAVE WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 35-45 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. LONG TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM TO BEGIN
MARCH WITH SIGNS OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA, BUT THERE'S GOOD
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DETAILS THIS FAR OUT. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND GOING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE REGION TAF SITES. KTRK AND KTVL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH 23/02Z. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO PERSIST INTO TOMORROW. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE
MONDAY GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL FOG. -078
AVALANCHE
NO SNOW IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.
WIND AND WIND CHILLS TODAY: GUSTY WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR WIND CHILLS TO STAY ABOVE ZERO.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE NEXT STORM ARRIVES ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND PEAKS ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN AND MORE HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
ABOVE 9 TO 10 KFT AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS UP TO 90-110 MPH AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. SNOW LEVELS START TO COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY, WHEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING LOW SHOWER CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LIQUID
AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE BIT WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOWING
LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WEAK AR EVENT. IN THE LATEST
NBM PROBABILITIES, THERE IS A 15-25% CHANCE OF 2+ INCHES OF QPF
AT THE SIERRA CREST FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE EASTERN SIERRA HAVING A <10% CHANCE.
RIDGETOP WINDS DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 50 TO 80 MPH. -078/HC
HYDROLOGY
WHILE FLOODING FROM THE UPCOMING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY, THE WPC GIVES THE SIERRA
PORTIONS OF THE REGION A MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5%) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE RAIN OVER SNOW WILL LEAD TO
QUICKER RUNOFF ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. PLEASE CLEAR DRAINS NOW
IF YOU CAN TO HELP PREVENT POSSIBLE PONDING. ALSO, RIVERS AND
STREAMS WITHIN THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO SEE RISES LEADING TO SOME
POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS THIS WEEK. IN PARTICULAR, THE
WOODFORDS RIVER GAGE FOR THE WEST FORK CARSON RIVER HAS A 5-25%
CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOODING STAGE ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER RIVERS
THAT HAVE A 5% PROBABILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE THE SUSAN,
MIDDLE FORK OF THE FEATHER AND THE PIT RIVER. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IN CASE FLOOD PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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