088
FXUS65 KREV 232237
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
237 PM PST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
* THE NEXT IMPACTFUL STORM ARRIVES TONIGHT BRINGING GUSTY TO STRONG
WINDS WITH RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FLOODING POTENTIAL PERSISTS WITH THIS WEAK ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER EVENT, BUT FLOODING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
* WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE HINTS OF A WEAK SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE GOING INTO THE EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
STEADILY CLIMBING. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
CREEP INTO THE SIERRA AND NE CA TONIGHT (INCREASING AROUND
MIDNIGHT) AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. FORECAST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS AN EASTERN PACIFIC LOW SPLITTING INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT
MOVES MORE INTO THE PACIFIC AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE PACNW ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS HAPPENING
ABOVE, MOISTURE FROM A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BE PULLED INTO
THE AREA. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE PEAK DAY FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THE SIERRA AND NE CA SEEING A 65-85% CHANCE, THE SIERRA
FRONT SEEING A 35-45% CHANCE, AND THE NV BASIN AND RANGE SEEING
AROUND A 10-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GRADUALLY LESSEN GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ENDING IN THE SIERRA AROUND LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS FOR WHAT TO EXPECT FOR ACTUAL PRECIPITATION: SNOW LEVELS WILL
RAISE TO ABOVE 9-10 KFT RESULTING IN MOST OF THE AREA SEEING A P-
TYPE OF RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE THOSE ELEVATIONS
ELEVATIONS AND ABOVE PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN SIERRA IN MONO
COUNTY. FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
MONO COUNTY STILL LOOK TO BE 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH 10-30% CHANCE OF
OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE EASTERN SIERRA CREST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE VERY WET WITH SNOW-TO-
LIQUID RATIOS OF AROUND 2-6:1. SNOW LEVELS DO COME DOWN TO 7.5-9
KFT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, SO THERE IS A CHANCE SNOW MAY MIX INTO
THE LINGERING SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION SEEING RAIN: THE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS WILL STAY WEST OF THE CA/NV BORDER THROUGH THIS SYSTEM.
THE SIERRA CREST HAS THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN
1.5-2.5 INCHES WITH A 15-35% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. THE
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CA MOUNTAINS FROM WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY
DOWN TO MONO COUNTY WILL SEE AROUND 0.5-1 INCH OF QPF WITH THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE TAHOE BASIN SEEING UP TO 1.5 INCHES. AS
SPILLOVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED, THE SIERRA FRONT AREAS HAVE
AROUND 0.1-0.3 INCHES OF QPF IN THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE NV BASIN AND RANGE COULD SEE UP TO AROUND 0.1 INCHES.
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING IN THE REGION MAY BE A POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE
INFO ON THIS.
ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE STRONG WINDS THAT IT WILL
BRING TO THE REGION. THE SIERRA CREST AND THE HIGHEST PEAKS EXPECT
TO EXPERIENCE GUSTS OVER 100 MPH WITH AREAS ALONG US-395 AND
THOSE AT LAKE TAHOE LEVEL WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35-45 MPH.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE TAHOE BEGINNING
TONIGHT LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY. WESTERN NV WIND-PRONE AREAS LOOK
TO HAVE A 40-70% PROBABILITY CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WINDS
THEN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. LONG TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM TO BEGIN
MARCH WITH SIGNS OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA, BUT THERE'S GOOD
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DETAILS THIS FAR OUT. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS TO BECOME LIKELY. SIERRA TERMINALS BEGIN TO
EXPERIENCE RAIN SHOWER CHANCES GENERALLY AFTER 23/06Z THOUGH KTVL
MAY SEE VICINITY SHOWERS A FEW HOURS BEFORE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM,
KMEV=KTRK-KTVL WINDS INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
AROUND 23/02Z. LLWS AND TURBULENCE RETURNS AFTER 23/00-03Z DUE TO
FL100 WINDS INCREASING TO 40-55 KTS AND THEN UP TO 60-65 KTS
AROUND 23/09-10Z. -078
AVALANCHE
NO SNOW IS FORECASTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE NEXT STORM ARRIVES TONIGHT AND PEAKS ON TUESDAY WITH MORE RAIN
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 9 TO 10 KFT, AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 90-110 MPH AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
SNOW LEVELS COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO 7.5-9 KFT FOR THE
TAHOE BASIN, AND FOR MONO COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING LOW SHOWER CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
LIQUID AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THIS WEAK AR EVENT. IN THE
LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES, THERE IS A 15-35% CHANCE OF 2+ INCHES OF
LIQUID AT THE SIERRA CREST FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD BETWEEN
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE EASTERN SIERRA HAVING A <10%
CHANCE. CURRENT STORM TOTALS HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST: AROUND 1.5-2.5" IN THE SIERRA CREST AROUND THE TAHOE
BASIN, 1-1.5" BELOW THE CREST. FOR MONO COUNTY, 1-2" NEAR THE
CREST FROM MONO LAKE AND NORTHWARDS, AND 0.5-1.5" SOUTH OF MONO
LAKE NEAR THE CREST. BELOW 8 KFT IN MONO COUNTY, 0.5-1.0" OF
LIQUID IS FORECAST.
SLRS WILL BE 2-6:1 ABOVE 9-10 KFT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-6"
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS FROM MONO LAKE SOUTHWARDS.
RIDGETOP WINDS DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 50 TO 80 MPH.
-HC/078
HYDROLOGY
RAIN AT ALL BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS DURING THE WEAK ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER WILL LEAD TO RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
THE NOW EXPANSIVE LOW ELEVATION SHALLOW SNOWPACK (BELOW ABOUT 5500
FEET), WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF AS IT MELTS WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES, RAIN, AND HIGH WINDS. THE DEEPER AND COLDER HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWPACK (ABOVE ABOUT 7000 FEET) IS EXPECTED TO RETAIN
MOST OF THE RAINFALL, BUT WARM SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE EVENT.
HOW THE NOW SIGNIFICANT MID ELEVATIONS SNOWPACK RESPONDS TO THE
RAIN IS AN AREA OF GREATER UNCERTAINTY.
THE GREATEST FLOODING CONCERNS IS FOR MOUNTAIN URBAN AREAS WHERE
DEEP SNOW LARGE PLOW BERMS MAY BLOCK DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AND FUNNEL
RUNOFF INTO UNEXPECTED AREAS.
FLOODING FROM RIVERS AND STREAMS IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED, BUT
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG IF RAINFALL EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS.
CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW ABOUT ABOUT A 5% CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING
ALONG THE SUSAN RIVER NEAR SUSANVILLE AND THE WEST FORK OF THE
CARSON RIVER INTO CARSON VALLEY, AND VERY LOW, BUT NON ZERO
CHANCES ALONG THE MIDDLE FORK OF THE FEATHER NEAR PORTOLA.
ELEVATED FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT THE RECENTLY RIPENED SNOWPACK.
THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILL BE EXTENDING HOURS WILL ADD A THIRD
EVENING FORECAST ON TUESDAY FOR RIVER POINTS WHERE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. CHECK FOR UPDATED RIVER FORECASTS AT: WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV
-TB
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY
NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY
CAZ072.
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