368
FXUS65 KREV 160810
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
110 AM PDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN HISTORIC MARCH WARMTH THIS
WEEK.
* THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ACCELERATE SNOWMELT, LEADING TO
RIVERS RUNNING FAST AND COLD.
* DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT A
PATTERN CHANGE IS POSSIBLE BY MARCH 24TH OR 25TH.
DISCUSSION
* AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (~595 DAM) WILL
MOVE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE REGION TO SOAR TO READINGS MORE
COMMON FOR EARLY TO MID-JUNE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
(>85%) REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS WEEK FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
NV, AS WELL AS EASTERN LASSEN AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MONO
AND ALPINE COUNTIES. EVEN THE EASTERN SIERRA COMMUNITIES WILL
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY (80%)
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WE EVEN HAVE A
85% CHANCE OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE MONTHLY RECORD HIGH OF
83 DEGREES IN RENO. TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIGHTLY WEAKENS. BUT, WE'LL REMAIN
UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN, WINDS
WILL START TO PICK UP BY THE WEEKEND.
* MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE AND
FLOW RAPIDLY THIS WEEK. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE RECORD-
BREAKING, THE WATER REMAINS COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE IMMEDIATE
PHYSICAL SHOCK AND EXHAUSTION. TO STAY SAFE, AVOID THE WATER AND
KEEP CHILDREN AND PETS AWAY FROM FAST-MOVING RIVERBANKS.
* ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE AROUND
THE 24TH-25TH. THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN AND SNOW REMAINS LOW
(15%), AND BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES REMAINING UP TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. -MCKELLAR
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EAST BREEZES PREVAIL TODAY.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING THIS WEEK MAY POSE DENSITY ALTITUDE IMPACTS
FOR WESTERN NEVADA TERMINALS, PARTICULARLY AFTER TODAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST. REDUCTIONS TO SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING DUE TO INVERSIONS AND
SUBSEQUENT HAZE.
-SALAS/MCKELLAR
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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