732
FXUS65 KREV 020924
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
224 AM PDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG WINDS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SIERRA AND SIERRA
FRONT.
* SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD AND DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
* A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND STARTS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE TAHOE
BASIN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 OVER WESTERN NV EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY RAIN, EXCEPT FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FT WHERE SNOW AND RAIN SNOW MIX PREVAILS.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
PLUMMET DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS, BUT BY THEN THE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE WAY AT MOST LOCATIONS. THEREFORE, SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE, BUT THE CHANCES ARE AROUND 10-30% AT THE MOST.
MOST OF THE PRECIP IS HAPPENING IN THE SIERRA, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO
THE CREST. SO, ANYBODY TRYING TO GO THROUGH ANY OF THE PASSES MAY
HAVE DELAYS DUE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT. DONNER PASS IS
EXPECTED TO GET AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH 5 AM,
THEN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO THROUGH 11 AM. TAHOE BASIN
COMMUNITIES COULD HAVE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW, WITH POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE TAHOE.
THE WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING AS 700 MB WINDS REMAIN
AROUND 70-90 MPH ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ALOFT. THESE
WINDS WILL TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN STRONG AND
DAMAGING DOWNSLOPE WINDS. GUSTS OF 60-80 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT FROM THE CARSON VALLEY THROUGH THE TRUCKEE MEADOWS. EVEN
THE RENO-TAHOE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAD A GUST LAST NIGHT OF 77
MPH. SO, IT HAS BEEN VERY WINDY, AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 5 AM TO 8 AM AT THE LATEST. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 11 AM ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH AND SHIFTS THE WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
AFTERNOON GUSTS SHOULD BE MORE TYPICAL IN THE 20-40 MPH RANGE,
WITH WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET.
BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBUILD OFF THE WEST COAST.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER, GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING
LIGHT EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS,
BUT WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST VALLEYS AND SIERRA COMMUNITIES.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS DIPPING
NEAR FREEZING IN LOWER ELEVATIONS.
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EASTER AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB RAPIDLY, WITH WESTERN NEVADA
VALLEYS SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON SATURDAY, AND
MID 70S TO LOW 80S BY SUNDAY. SIERRA COMMUNITIES WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S AND
60S ON SATURDAY, AND 60S TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY MODERATE, THOUGH STILL REMAINING COOL IN THE
SIERRA. IN SUMMARY, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE, SUGGESTS A
WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THERE IS SOME MODEL
VARIABILITY IN THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, SO
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC IMPACTS REMAINS LOW AT THIS RANGE.
-HC
AVIATION
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING DUE SHRA
AND SHRASN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT FOR KMMH THAT HAS LESS
THAN 30% OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN
BELOW 15% FOR WESTERN NV AND FOR AT LEAST 0.5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
KTRK/KTVL AROUND 15% TOO. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG WITH LLWS AND WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE. FL100 WINDS WILL
PERSIST AT 80-100 KTS THROUGH 18Z, THEN DOWN TO 40-60 KTS BETWEEN
18-00Z, AND FURTHER DROPPING IN THE EVENING. GUSTS OF 40-60 KTS
FROM SW ARE LIKELY THROUGH 15Z, THEN SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE N AND
NW DOWN TO 20-30 KTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET.
-HC
AVALANCHE
RAIN AND SNOW TAPERS OFF FOR ALL AVALANCHE CENTER TERRAIN THIS
MORNING.
* SNOW LEVELS, RATES, AND AMOUNTS: LARGE SPREAD IN SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN AVALANCHE CENTER TERRAIN TODAY. FOR ESAC, LEVELS WILL BE
AROUND 4.5 TO 6.5 KFT HIGHER THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. FOR BAC,
MOSTLY RANGING BETWEEN 4.5-5.5 KFT. FOR SAC AND THE TAHOE BASIN,
ANYWHERE FROM 3.5-4.5 KFT TODAY. RATES WILL BE THE HIGHEST EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH UP TO 0.5"/HR FOR SAC TERRAIN, OTHERWISE
<0.5"/HR. NEW SNOW TOTALS WILL BE UP TO 1", LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG
THE SIERRA CREST OF THE TAHOE BASIN.
* SWE AND SLRS: SWE WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE TAHOE BASIN, WITH UP TO
0.1" ALONG THE CREST. OTHERWISE, BELOW 0.1" FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE SIERRA. SLRS WILL BE AROUND 8-12:1 WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
* WIND GUSTS: VERY STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS EXPECTED, RANGING
FROM 100-120 MPH AT RIDGETOPS, DECREASING THROUGH THIS MORNING.
-GIRALTE/HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY NVZ001-004-005.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY NVZ003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY NVZ002.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY CAZ070.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY CAZ071-073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY CAZ072.
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