700
FXUS65 KREV 050944
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
244 AM PDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL EARLY
THIS WEEK.
* COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH WELL OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS UNDERNEATH HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THIS MORNING. MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS THE RIDGE PERSISTING
THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS THE
CURRENT WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. VALLEY PORTIONS OF W NV AND NE
CA HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING BETWEEN LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S WHILE SIERRA COMMUNITIES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EVEN EXPECT TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WHEN COMPARED TO THOSE EXPERIENCED DURING THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT.
FOR TOMORROW, MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY WITHIN THE RIDGING PATTERN. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THE SIERRA
RIDGES HAVE AROUND A 50-60% CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH ON
MONDAY WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE SIERRA FRONT HAVING A 10-20%
CHANCE FOR THE SAME. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN ALONG WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM BY A
FEW DEGREES. THE DRY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL
WITH THE REGION SEEING MOSTLY SIMILAR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO THOSE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.
THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK TO CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE N CA COAST. WHILE THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS WITH THIS LOW (TRACK, TIMING,
GENERAL EVOLUTION), MODELS ARE SHOWING INCREASED CHANCES (>15%)
FOR PRECIPITATION ON EACH DAY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK COMPARED TO
THE FORMER HALF. WILL BE MONITORING HOW THIS ALL PANS OUT AS THERE
COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS (~15% CHANCE OR LESS) WITH
THESE LATE WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SIERRA AND NE CA.
WITH THE TEMPERATURES COOLING IN THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK,
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ALSO COULD POTENTIALLY BE SEEN AT THE SIERRA
CREST THOUGH NOT SEEING IMPACTFUL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT TO CONTINUE TODAY FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES.
WHILE AREA WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
SIERRA FRONT TERMINALS WILL HAVE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND 10
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE
ON WEDNESDAY. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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