452
FXUS65 KREV 060944
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
244 AM PDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES TODAY AND TUESDAY.
* PATTERN SHIFTS TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK WITH
VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE EXTENT OF THE
IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS, AN UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ALSO SEEN JUST OFF THE COAST OF S CA. FORECAST
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH S CA TODAY AND
INTO AZ BY THIS EVENING. THIS PATTERN ALOFT WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND TODAY AS DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THE W NV VALLEYS AND IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES ARE FORECAST TODAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE WHILE WINDS INCREASE A BIT
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE REGION AND
UP TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA.
FOR TUESDAY, MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER THE REGION
THOUGH IT IS NOW BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER SW CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO CONTINUE ANOTHER DAY IN THE
REGION (MOSTLY SIMILAR TO THOSE TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED ON
MONDAY). ALSO, BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS SIMILAR TO THOSE FOR MONDAY
ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AS WELL ALONG WITH MORE DRY WEATHER.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS
N CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE RESIDENT RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH THIS
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT, AREA TEMPERATURES START A COOLING TREND
THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK
TO BE ~5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
(15-35%) RETURN TO THE REGION AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON FOR NE CA,
THE TAHOE REGION, AND N WASHOE COUNTY. WHILE THE HIGHER END
CHANCES LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO THE OR BORDER, RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH SNOW LEVELS OVER 9000 FT. HOWEVER,
ANY RAIN WOULD HAVE TO OVERCOME THE LOWER DRY LAYER TO REACH THE
SURFACE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW
MOVING CLOSER TO THE CA COAST WHICH WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WHILE DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE
LATEST ECMWF EXTREME WEATHER INDEX (EFI) FOR CAPE SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY STILL
LOOK TO BE MORE ISOLATED WHILE FRIDAY SHOWS SIGNS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE A BIT MORE SCATTERED WITHIN THE REGION. THE COOLING TREND
CONTINUES WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES BEING AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS MAY COME DOWN TO
AROUND 8000 FT ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. PLEASE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR
FURTHER FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS AS ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE
ON THE WAY. EXTENDED FORECAST GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS THE UPPER LOW
BEING ABSORBED INTO A LARGER PACNW TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES UP
TO 15-20 KTS IN THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN TO A
PORTION OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW. THE
CHANCES ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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