289
FXUS65 KREV 070928
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
228 AM PDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TODAY
WITH ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES.
* THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
STARTING TOMORROW WITH VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
CHANCES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE EXTENT OF THE IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DISPLAYS A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CWA WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE
PACIFIC AND ANOTHER LOW OVER SW CANADA THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE THE
RIDGE RESIDING OVER THE CWA PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES TO
CONTINUE TODAY. NE CA AND W NV VALLEY WILL HAVE DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S TODAY WITH SIERRA COMMUNITIES BEING IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. AREAWIDE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. FOR TONIGHT, LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S FOR
NE CA AND W NV VALLEYS AND IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S FOR THE
SIERRA COMMUNITIES.
ON WEDNESDAY, FORECAST GUIDANCE PROJECTS THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW
STARTING TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND MOVING TOWARDS N CA, WHICH
WILL PUSH THE RESIDENT RIDGE TO THE EAST. EVEN WITH THIS PATTERN
CHANGE ALOFT, THE LATEST FORECAST HAS AREA TEMPERATURES STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY 10-15 DEGREES. SOME PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THOUGH COULD SEE DAYTIME HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THOUGH
COMPARED TO TUESDAY'S HIGHS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-35%)
RETURN TO THE REGION DURING AFTERNOON FOR NE CA, THE TAHOE
REGION, AND N WASHOE COUNTY. WHILE THE HIGHER END CHANCES LOOK TO
BE CLOSER TO THE OR BORDER, RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8500-9000 FT. ANY RAIN
WOULD HAVE TO OVERCOME THE LOWER DRY LAYER TO REACH THE SURFACE,
SO DO NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF VIRGA OCCURS. CAMS STILL ARE
PROJECTING POCKETS OF ~100-500 J/KG IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS SO
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER.
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS THE CWA UNDERNEATH THE
FRONT PART OF THE TROUGH YIELDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE, AREA TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL BEING ~5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THEN GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON THESE DAYS BEING
AROUND 20-60% ON THURSDAY AND INCREASING TO AROUND 40-90% ON FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THESE SHOWERS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE
AROUND 10-20% ON THURSDAY AND 15-30% ON FRIDAY. THERE STILL IS
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
SO PLEASE WATCH FOR FORECAST UPDATES ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED THROUGH THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK. WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING, SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO DROP DOWN TO AROUND
7500-8000 FT LATE FRIDAY ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TYPE TO TURN TO
SNOW IN HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA.
FOR THE WEEKEND, A LARGER PACNW TROUGH ABSORBS THE SMALLER TROUGH IN
THE REGION AS IT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL WITH AREA HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE 40S AND 50S BY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40-80%)
CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS DOES THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(10-20%). WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP A BIT
MORE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST NBM FORECAST SHOWING LEVELS
AROUND 6.5-7 KFT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
AS MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR MORE PORTIONS OF SIERRA LOOKS TO BE
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES TODAY.
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY WITH KRNO/KCXP/KMEV/KMMH SEEING
AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15-20 KTS. AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
LOW CHANGES THE WEATHER PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY CAUSING RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (15-35%) IN NE CA AND FAR NW NV. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL SIERRA SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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