734
FXUS65 KREV 081009
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
309 AM PDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN BEGINS TODAY, WITH VALLEY RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW CHANCES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE EXTENT OF THE IMPACTS.
* WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, IMPACTFUL SIERRA SNOWFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
THE CWA IS STILL UNDERNEATH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE THIS MORNING WITH A
PACIFIC LOW WELL OFF TO THE WEST. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA UNDERNEATH HIGH CLOUDS WHILE CURRENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY REPORT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. GOING THROUGH TODAY, FORECAST GUIDANCE PROJECTS THE RIDGE
MOVING EASTWARD AS THE PACIFIC LOW PUSHES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE WEST
COAST. WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT, PM PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS UNDERNEATH THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE: NE CA AND N WASHOE COUNTY
(20-40%POPS). THE SIERRA CREST FROM THE TAHOE REGION DOWN TO
N MONO COUNTY ALSO WILL SEE A 10-15% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
CAMS ARE STILL SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF MUCAPE (UP TO AROUND 600
J/KG) AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (20-30 KTS), SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
(NON- SEVERE) ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION
LATER TODAY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 2-10 PM ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
RUN OF THE RRFS MODEL. AREA TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHS MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THE PACIFIC LOW GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD AND OPENS UP
INTO A TROUGH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK GIVING THE CWA A
SOUTHERLY UPPER AIR FLOW. WITH THIS ABOVE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON THURSDAY INCREASE TO AROUND 15-45% AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
THE HIGHER END CHANCES AGAIN LOOK TO BE IN NE CA, N WASHOE COUNTY,
AND IN THE SIERRA. MODEL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUPPORT ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (10-20%) WITHIN THE REGION,
THOUGH THE STORMS STILL LOOK TO BE NON-SEVERE AND OF THE ISOLATED
VARIETY. THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW LOOKS TO OPEN AFTER 1 PM WITHIN
THE REGION AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE RRFS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START A COOLING TREND (THOUGH STILL STAYING 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WITH DAYTIME HIGHS DECREASING BY 3-5 DEGREES
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY'S TEMPERATURES.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS SHOWING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH POPS BEING 50-90%. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO INCREASE BEING
AROUND 15-30% WITH COVERAGE BEING MORE SCATTERED COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGHER END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK TO
BE IN NE CA AND THE SIERRA, BUT W NV THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. DETAILS IN SEVERITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT CAMS ARE
HINTING AT SUB-SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
WATCH FOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR FRIDAY ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS. WITH AREA TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO COOL CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY, SNOW LEVELS EXPECT TO DROP DOWN TO
AROUND 7500-8000 FT LATER IN THE DAY ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TYPE
TO TURN TO SNOW IN HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA. THE SIERRA CREST
CURRENTLY HAS AROUND A 35- 75% NBM PROBABILITY OF GETTING AT
LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW BY SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR THE WEEKEND, A LARGER PACNW TROUGH ABSORBS THE SMALLER TROUGH IN
THE REGION AS IT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL WITH AREA HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE 40S AND 50S BY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRIDAY WHILE THEY DECREASE ON SUNDAY TO 35-
75%. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ALSO CONTINUES ON BOTH DAYS WITH
CHANCES BEING AROUND 10-20%. AS TEMPERATURES COOL, SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP A BIT MORE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST NBM FORECAST
SHOWING LEVELS AROUND 6.5-7 KFT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL COULD BE POSSIBLE AT SIERRA PASS LEVEL LATE SATURDAY GOING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LATEST NBM RUN PREDICTS A 30-50% CHANCE
OF THE SIERRA CREST RECEIVING AT LEAST 12 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN CASE WINTER PRODUCTS ARE
NEEDED IN THE SIERRA, BUT THE TAHOE REGION INCLUDING DOWN TO LAKE
LEVEL MAY SEE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW THIS WEEKEND. -078
AVIATION
MOST AREA TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE AT KTRK THIS MORNING BETWEEN 12Z-15Z AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF FZFG
MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE SITE. WESTERLY AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTING UP TO
AROUND 20-25 KTS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY EXCEPT
FOR KTVL. WHILE A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION STAYS DRY TODAY, THERE
IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NE CA AND
FAR NW NV THIS AFTERNOON WITH <15% CHANCE IN THE SIERRA CREST.
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND INTO THE SIERRA FRONT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SIERRA SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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