009
FXUS65 KREV 091014
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
314 AM PDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MILD SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY, THEN A SPRING STORM WILL
BRING NOTABLY COOLER WEATHER, WIDESPREAD RAIN, AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW THIS WEEKEND.
* ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE E.SIERRA AND FAR
W.NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
* SIERRA SNOWFALL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING AS SNOW
LEVELS DROP BELOW 7000 FEET. WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER PACIFIC LOW WEST OF N CA
THIS MORNING WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS LOW GRADUALLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE (25-55% IN NE CA AND THE SIERRA,
15-30% IN W NV) WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW OPENING AFTER 12PM
PT. QPF WITH SHOWERS TODAY RANGES BETWEEN A TRACE AND AROUND 0.3
INCHES WITH NE CA AND SIERRA CREST AROUND THE TAHOE REGION SEEING
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES (10-30%) ARE
FORECAST AGAIN TODAY WITH THE HIGHER-END CHANCES ALSO SEEN IN NE
CA AND THE SIERRA CREST AROUND THE TAHOE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH
POSSIBLE HAZARDS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS,
AND SMALL HAIL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT THOUGH EASTERN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES EXPECT SHOWER
CHANCES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40-50%. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOL SLIGHTLY TODAY, THEY STILL WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS (MID-60S TO MID-70S IN THE NE CA AND W NV
VALLEYS, 50S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES).
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY STILL SHOWS BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
(55-95%) IN THE REGION AS THE PACIFIC LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO CA
AND OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH. HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SIERRA WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7500-8000 FT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY (15-35%) WITH COVERAGE BEING
MORE SCATTERED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THE HIGHER-END THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN NE CA AND THE TAHOE REGION THOUGH
THE ENTIRE REGION HAS SOME CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. CAMS ARE HINTING
AT SUB-SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME WITH POSSIBLE HAZARDS SIMILAR
TO THOSE ON THURSDAY. QPF VALUES RANGE BETWEEN UNDER 0.1 INCHES TO
AROUND 0.8 INCHES IN THE SIERRA CREST. WITH AREA TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO COOL CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY, SNOW
LEVELS EXPECT TO DROP DOWN TO BELOW 7000 FT OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO TURN TO SNOW IN MORE PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA.
THE SIERRA CREST SNOWFALL FORECAST CURRENTLY RANGES BETWEEN 1-4
INCHES OF SNOWFALL BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SIERRA RIDGE WINDS ON FRIDAY
LOOK TO GUST UP TO AROUND 45-50 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 55-60 KTS GOING INTO THE NIGHT.
FOR THE WEEKEND, A LARGER PACNW TROUGH ABSORBS THE SMALLER TROUGH IN
THE REGION AS IT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FORECAST BETWEEN
THE MID-40S AND THE MID-50S FOR THE VALLEY AREAS AND MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S RANGE IN SIERRA COMMUNITIES BY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRIDAY. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ALSO LESSENS A BIT BOTH DAYS WITH CHANCES
AROUND 10-20%. AS TEMPERATURES COOL, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST NBM FORECAST SHOWING SNOW LEVELS
AROUND OR BELOW 5000 FT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL IN NE CA AND THE
SIERRA INCLUDING DOWN TO LAKE TAHOE LEVEL, A WINTER STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NE CA AND THE TAHOE REGION SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WHILE THE WATCH IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
PORTION OF THE CWA BEGINS EARLIER ON FRIDAY EVENING AS IT SEES
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL START EARLIER. FOR MORE INFORMATION
INCLUDING SNOWFALL FORECAST AMOUNTS AS WELL AS INCREASED WINDS IN
THESE AREAS, CONSULT THE WINTER STORM WATCH PRODUCT FOR MORE
DETAILS AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR
FORECAST UPDATES WITH THIS STORM ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO
TRAVEL THROUGH THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE PROJECTED SNOW
LEVELS ALMOST TO VALLEY FLOOR LEVEL, SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN WITH
SHOWERS IN THE RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED IN
THESE LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WEEKEND STORM WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS WITH OVER 50 MPH FOR WIND PRONE AREAS. MOST SNOW
IMPACTS SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAILING. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER,
THE DRY PATTERN ENDS THIS AFTERNOON AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
(~20-50%) BEGIN AROUND 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST
FORECAST MODEL RUNS SHOW MOSTLY VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY, BUT
WILL BE MONITORING CONDITIONS IN CASE A STRAY SHOWER REDUCES
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND TAF AMENDMENTS ARE NEEDED. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE ~10-30% THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH HIGHER-END CHANCES IN NE CA AND THE SIERRA.
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE (~55-95%) AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW
IMPACTS FOR SIERRA TERMINALS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY SATURDAY
WITH GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR KTRK,
KTVL, KMMH BY MONDAY MORNING. -FUENTES/078
AVALANCHE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE
SIERRA ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND:
* FRIDAY: 70-90% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH 15-30% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA. ANY SNOW
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH 1-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BELOW 7000 FEET BY
FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SNOW RATIOS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 9-11:1.
* SATURDAY-MONDAY MORNING: SNOW LEVELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH LOWER
RECENTLY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING BELOW 6500 FEET BY MID-
MORNING SATURDAY. SNOW RATIO AROUND 8-10:1 ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING NEAR 12:1 BY SUNDAY. WHILE TIMING
REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME, THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
RATES ARE TARGETING SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. SWE OF 2.5-2.75"
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST BY MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE
TAHOE BASIN WITH NEAR 2.0" IN MONO COUNTY. SNOW TOTALS NEARING 3
FEET ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN THE TAHOE BASIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH
AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE CREST IN MONO COUNTY. STRONG AND GUSTY
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGETOP
GUSTS OF 80-100 MPH EXPECTED. -FUENTES/078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
NVZ001.
CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
CAZ071-072.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
CAZ071.
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