475
FXUS65 KREV 231907
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1207 PM PDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (15-30%) RETURN FRIDAY WITH
SLICK MOUNTAIN ROADS.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH MORE
PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE TAHOE AREA AND EASTERN SIERRA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
* AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE LESS THAN 10%.
DISCUSSION
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AND TWO
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OFF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. PIECES OF ENERGY FROM BOTH
SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN A SHOWERY PATTERN FOR THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-30% CHANCE) RETURN FOR LASSEN
COUNTY, TAHOE AREA, EASTERN SIERRA AND INTO WESTERN NV FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE INSTABILITY BOOST FROM SURFACE HEATING.
NOT LOOKING AT ANY MAJOR PRECIPITATION TOTALS, BUT A MIX OF RAIN,
SNOW AND SNOW PELLET SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA COULD LEAD TO SLICK/WET
MOUNTAIN ROADS.
SIMULATIONS ARE SHOWING A MORE STEADY PERIOD OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW. TWO AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP (60%+ CHANCE) FROM THIS INTERACTION.
AS WITH ANY LATE APRIL STORM, SNOW IS MORE APT TO STICKING TO
ROADS AND PAVED SURFACES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
* THE FIRST OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LASSEN AND WASHOE COUNTIES
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN/SNOW LINES FALLING TO NEAR 5000
FT. SNOW TOTAL REMAIN LIGHT WITH ONLY A 40-50% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES.
* SIMULATIONS SHOW THE SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF US-50
IN ALPINE, MONO, DOUGLAS, LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. RAIN/SNOW
ARE FORECAST TO FALL FROM 7000-8000 FEET TO 6000 FEET WITH A
40-50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 6 INCHES. HIGH END SCENARIOS (10%
CHANCE) SHOW UP TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN MONO COUNTY ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. BELOW THE SNOW LINE,
THERE IS 20-30% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH. THE
LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST REDEVELOPS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW MAINTAINS A 10-20% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. BRONG
AVIATION
* MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. 70% CONFIDENCE IN
AREAS OF SHALLOW IFR-LIFR FOG AFTER 6Z AROUND TRK AND SIERRA
VALLEYS THAT SAW PRECIPITATION EARLIER THIS WEEK.
* INCREASED W/NW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE (20-30% ODDS)
WHICH WOULD PRODUCE TEMPORARY MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS, ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS, LIGHTNING, AND PELLET SHOWERS.
* POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR
MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS, MMH IN PARTICULAR.
-CHRIS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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