822
FXUS65 KREV 261301
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
147 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COOL, SHOWERY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDER AND MINOR SNOW IMPACTS FOR SIERRA PASSES.
* SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
* EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR MID-LATE WEEK, THEN SHOWER
CHANCES MAY RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT AREAS OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
VALLEY RAIN TO MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES IS DEPARTING EASTWARD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NV. MEANWHILE, A BROADER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
CURRENTLY PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST CA WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF CA/NV THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK. COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASED INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, FAVORING AREAS FROM SUSANVILLE-
PYRAMID LAKE-FALLON NORTHWARD WHERE CHANCES FOR THUNDER INCREASE
TO NEAR 25%. WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S TODAY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF PELLETS/VERY SMALL
HAIL.
ALONG THE SIERRA, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWER BANDS MAINLY
NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 5500-6000
FEET THIS MORNING EDGING UP TO 6000-6500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SPARSE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS,
A WELL-PLACED BAND COULD BRING LIGHT AMOUNTS UP TO 2" AND SLICK
TRAVEL FOR THE MAIN SIERRA PASSES (DONNER/ECHO SUMMITS) ESPECIALLY
FOR THE MORNING OR EVENING HOURS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN
NV, SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPARSE THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER
CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA INTO WESTERN NV FROM RENO-FALLON
SOUTHWARD ARE LOWER, GENERALLY 10-15%. BRISK WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 25-35 MPH WILL MAKE TODAY MORE FALL-LIKE,
WITH ISOLATED CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES.
FOR MONDAY, A NEAR-REPEAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DECREASES COMPARED TO TODAY WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER (15-20%) EAST OF US-95 IN WEST CENTRAL
NV, AND GENERALLY AROUND 10% ELSEWHERE. SHOWER COVERAGE AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS DECREASE IN COMPARISON TO TODAY, WHILE SNOW LEVELS IN THE
SIERRA EDGE UPWARD TO NEAR 7000 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, LIMITING
TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER THE MAIN PASSES.
THIS TROUGH PATTERN IS PROJECTED TO HANG ON THROUGH TUESDAY, AND
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA. AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP BY 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE MONDAY'S HIGHS AND SIERRA SNOW LEVELS RISE TO
7500-8000 FEET, SNOW TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR MAIN
PASSES.
FROM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO CA/NV AND
CONTINUES THE WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO NEAR 80
DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR 70 FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALSO
PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH CUMULUS BUILDUPS MAY YIELD A SLIM 5-10% CHANCE
OF BRIEF SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE SIERRA CREST.
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO START OUT WARM AND MAINLY DRY, BUT MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO THE WESTERN US. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THIS SYSTEM'S TRACK,
WITH SOME SCENARIOS TRACKING THE LOW FARTHER WEST/OFF THE WEST
COAST. AT THIS TIME, OUR FORECAST INDICATES A RETURN OF
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES AND A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING BY
SUNDAY. MJD
AVIATION
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN FOR THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY, FAVORING THE SIERRA
TERMINALS WHERE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN -SHRASN COULD BEGIN
AS EARLY AS 17-18Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL 03Z EACH DAY. FOR WESTERN NV
TERMINALS, VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
EXPECT PERIODS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION EACH AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY.
LOW-END RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDER AFFECTING THE MAIN TERMINALS
(10-15% CHANCE) BETWEEN 20-02Z THIS AFTERNOON, THEN EDGING
DOWNWARD TO AROUND 10% FOR THE SIMILAR TIME FRAME MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
WEST BREEZES INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT FOR WESTERN NV
TERMINALS AND AROUND 20 KT FOR SIERRA TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN
18-04Z, FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS (GUSTS 15-20 KT) MONDAY. FL100
WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page