709
FXUS65 KREV 262027
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
127 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COOL, SHOWERY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDER AND MINOR SNOW IMPACTS FOR SIERRA PASSES.
* SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
* EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR MID-LATE WEEK, THEN SHOWER
CHANCES MAY RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE W CONUS TODAY IN A
POSITIVELY TILTED FASHION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FEATURE IN THE
SAME POSITION THROUGH THE DAY WITH A PACNW SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN
THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG THE WEST COAST. CURRENT RADAR RETURNS REPORT
ONGOING SHOWERS IN LASSEN, WASHOE, PERSHING, AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES
WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BEING MOSTLY DRY AT THE TIME OF
THIS ANALYSIS. GOING THROUGH THE DAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES (~50-
80%) SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE QUAD COUNTY AREA SEEING LESSER CHANCES (25-35%). WHILE MOST
OF THE CWA SEES AROUND A 10% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WITHIN TODAY'S SHOWERS, CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 20-30% FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM SUSANVILLE-PYRAMID LAKE-
FALLON THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE HREF SHOWS AROUND 100-200 J/KG OF
SBCAPE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR TODAY LOOK TO BE SUB-SEVERE
THOUGH SMALL HAIL AND ICE PELLETS CAN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. IN THE SIERRA,
SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 6-7 KFT THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATION. THE SIERRA
CREST HAS AROUND A 50-70% OF SEEING AT LEAST ONE INCH OF
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE NE CA AND W NV VALLEYS BEING IN THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S RANGE WHILE SIERRA COMMUNITIES HAVE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S IN THE FORECAST.
FOR MONDAY, MODELS HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE REINVIGORATING
THE TROUGH A BIT WHILE HAVING THE TROUGH PROGRESS EASTWARD. WITH
THIS PATTERN ALOFT, THE REGION LOOKS TO SEE ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS
THOUGH CHANCES DECREASE TO ~20-60%. THE SIERRA AS WELL AS CENTRAL
NV PORTIONS OF THE CWA EXPECT TO SEE THE HIGHER END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOWER
TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY THOUGH MOST OF THE REGION SEES AROUND A
10% CHANCE. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN EASTERN PERSHING AND
CHURCHILL COUNTIES WHICH MAY SEE UP TO A ~20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE AROUND 6.5-7 KFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON, SO SNOW SHOWERS STILL REMAIN ON THE TABLE FOR THE
SIERRA. HOWEVER, NOT ANTICIPATING IMPACTS WITH NEW SNOW AT PASS
LEVEL. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NBM SHOWS THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE
THAT THE SIERRA CREST SEES ONE INCH OF SNOW OR MORE AS WELL. AREA
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED
TO THOSE EXPERIENCED ON THE PREVIOUS DAY.
FOR TUESDAY, AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES EXPECT TO DECLINE QUITE BIT TO
AROUND 15-25% AND BE MOSTLY IN THE SIERRA PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A BIT WITH THE FORECAST SHOWING W NV
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AND SIERRA COMMUNITIES IN
THE 50S. AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE CWA ALLOWING FOR THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. BY FRIDAY, THE W NV VALLEYS HAVE A 30-50%
CHANCE OF HITTING 80 DEGREES. OVER THE WEEKEND, EXTENDED GUIDANCE
IS STILL SHOWING A PACNW UPPER TROUGH BREAKING INTO A CLOSED LOW
THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WHILE FORECAST DETAILS ARE STILL PRETTY
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT, THIS PATTERN MAY BRING BACK PRECIPITATION
AND STORM CHANCES AS WELL AS HALT THE WARMING TREND. -078
AVIATION
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER CHANCES EXPECT TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITHIN THE REGION WITH A MAJORITY OF THE REGION'S TAF SITES STAYING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. KTRK AND KTVL LOOK TO BE THE EXCEPTION AS MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 27/03-04Z. AREA WINDS TODAY
GENERALLY GUST UP TO AROUND 20-25 KTS THROUGH AT LEAST 27/05Z
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS AN AREA WIDE 10-30%
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE REGION
WITH HIGHER END CHANCES IN NE CA AND FAR NW NV AS WELL AS
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES. SHOWER CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN
AGAIN ON MONDAY. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page