592
FXUS65 KREV 270918
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
218 AM PDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES RETURN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.
* SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE AND SHIFT TO AREAS NEAR THE
SIERRA TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
* EXPECT DRIER WEATHER AND FURTHER WARMING FOR LATE THIS WEEK,
THEN SHOWER CHANCES MAY RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV
CA EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
THROUGH TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CA
COAST TUESDAY AND CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH A SMALL AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND TERRAIN-FOCUSED
CONVERGENCE SETS UP NEAR THE SIERRA. WITH THESE WEAK MEANDERING
WEATHER SYSTEMS SLOW TO CLEAR OUR AREA, SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER
THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO DECREASE EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TODAY WILL SEE A NEAR-REPEAT OF SUNDAY'S ACTIVITY, WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP AROUND MIDDAY AND PEAKING BETWEEN
2-5 PM. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SPARSE THE PAST FEW DAYS AND TODAY
LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR, WITH ONLY LOW END 15-20% CHANCES EAST OF
US-95 IN WEST CENTRAL NV AND CLIPPING SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY, WITH
5-15% CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SPOTTY SHORT-LIVED RAIN WITH A FEW
PELLETS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AS TODAY'S HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE (NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 40S NEAR THE
SIERRA), ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF THE REGION WON'T RECEIVE NOTABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR THE SIERRA, SNOW LEVELS EDGE UPWARD TO NEAR
7000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SITES COULD SEE AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW, BUT FOR MAIN PASSES THERE'S ONLY A MINIMAL
(LESS THAN 20%) CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW ON ROADS.
OVERALL, WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER (GUSTS 20 MPH OR LESS)
COMPARED TO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH BRIEF STRONGER GUSTS OF 30+ MPH MAY
OCCUR NEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY.
FOR TUESDAY, THE FOCUS AREA FOR PM SHOWERS SHIFTS TO AREAS NEAR
THE SIERRA, BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CLOSER TO
THE CA COAST, WHILE FOR WESTERN NV DRIER AIR WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY REDUCES THE SHOWER RISK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING
IS SPARSE, GENERALLY AROUND 10% NEAR THE SIERRA CREST NORTHWARD TO
WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. TEMPERATURES EDGE UPWARD BY ABOUT 5-8
DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY, NEAR LATE APRIL AVERAGES OF MID-UPPER
60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 50S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY, AND WHILE WE CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW PM SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST OF ALPINE-MONO
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE OVERALL OUTLOOK FOR MID-LATE
WEEK WILL FAVOR A DRY PATTERN. HIGHS CLIMB TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE SIERRA VALLEYS REBOUND TO NEAR 70 BY
FRIDAY. WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE PROJECTED FOR MOST AREAS, A
SHALLOW BACK-DOOR FRONT PASSAGE MAY BRING INCREASED NORTH WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE US-95 AND US-6 CORRIDORS OF
MINERAL/SOUTHEAST MONO COUNTIES.
HOWEVER, THIS WARM AND DRY PATTERN ISN'T EXPECTED TO BE LONG-
LASTING, AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN US FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY. SHOWERS MAY BEGIN BY LATE SATURDAY IN FAR
NORTHEAST CA, WITH INCREASED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES
EXPANDING TO THE SIERRA/WESTERN NV AND SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING
CURRENTLY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY. WITH THIS TROUGH PROJECTED TO EVOLVE
TO A SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW RELATIVELY TYPICAL FOR SPRING, SHOWER
CHANCES COULD CARRY ON THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE VARIED LOCATIONS/TRACKS OF THIS POTENTIAL LOW AMONG THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE
LOWER SIDE FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS. MJD
AVIATION
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING AROUND 19-20Z FOR THE SIERRA/TAHOE AREA
TERMINALS AND AFTER 21Z FOR THE WESTERN NV TERMINALS. COVERAGE
WILL BE ISOLATED, WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA FOR
KTRK/KTVL/KMMH AND SHORT PERIODS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION FOR
KRNO/KCXP/KMEV. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN BETWEEN 02-04Z.
FOR TUESDAY, ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN BRING SIMILAR BRIEF MVFR
POTENTIAL FOR THE SIERRA/TAHOE AREA TERMINALS, BUT WESTERN NV
SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. OVERALL WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH GUSTS 20 KT OR LESS, BUT
BRIEF GUSTS TO 30 KT COULD OCCUR NEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WHILE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT FZFG FORMATION AROUND KTRK THIS
MORNING, MORE CLEARING TONIGHT SETS UP A GREATER POTENTIAL
(50-70%) CHANCE FOR FZFG WITH LIFR EARLY TUESDAY MAINLY BETWEEN
08-15Z, ESPECIALLY IF PRECIP OCCURS AT THE AIRPORT TODAY. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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