507
FXUS65 KREV 290858
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
158 AM PDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT THIS MORNING'S COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY NEAR
TRUCKEE.
* WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST TODAY AND THURSDAY.
* CHANCES OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND
GUSTY WINDS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CLEAR SKIES AND MINOR WARMING ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD ALLOW POCKETS
OF FOG/FREEZING FOG TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN NE CALIFORNIA AND THE
E SIERRA -- ESPECIALLY AFTER ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
MOST NOTABLY, FREEZING FOG IS FAVORED NEAR TRUCKEE WHERE THE MORNING
COMMUTE MAY BE MET BY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SLICK ROADS. THIS
INCLUDES THE STRETCH OF I-80 BETWEEN BOCA AND DONNER LAKE. BE SURE
TO DRIVE SLOW AND LEAVE EXTRA SPACE BETWEEN CARS IF ENCOUNTERING
FOG.
EXITING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW DRY, N/NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY, ENCOURAGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT LASTS INTO
THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR AND A STABLE UPPER LAYER WILL LARGELY
SUPPRESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND, BUT
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10% OR LESS) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST IN THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, WARMER
DAYS ARE IN STORE AS DAYTIME HIGHS GO FROM 60-70F TODAY TO UPPER 60S
AND UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY. SOME COMMUNITIES IN NE CA AND W NV
VALLEYS MAY EVEN SEE HIGHS REACH 80F SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN STATES. HOWEVER, QUESTIONS STILL
REMAIN ON HOW THIS LOW WILL EVOLVE NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXISTING MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS, LENDING TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF STORM IMPACTS. GENERALLY, MORE ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEGINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON -- FAVORING THE EASTERN
SIERRA -- BEFORE INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD AND COVERAGE EACH DAY
THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOLLOWS A
SIMILAR TREND, ALTHOUGH SUNDAY STANDS OUT AS A MORE FAVORABLE DAY
BASED ON THE LOCATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT LARGE
SCALE ASCENT.
SIERRA SNOWFALL WILL BE QUITE SENSITIVE TO THE LOW'S PROGRESSION AS
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN WELL ABOVE MOUNTAIN PASSES UNTIL A POCKET OF COLD
AIR AT THE LOW'S CENTER MOVES INLAND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS HAPPENS
MONDAY OR PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY, HOWEVER THE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW AT PASS LEVEL (OR LOWER) IS RATHER BRIEF AS RISING SNOW LEVELS
WILL CONFINE SNOW TO HIGHEST SIERRA PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AS MENTIONED, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT, AND ANY
VARIATIONS IN THE STORM'S PASSAGE CAN SHIFT WHEN WHAT WAS DESCRIBED
ABOVE OCCURS AND HOW IMPACTFUL IT WILL BE.
-SALAS
AVIATION
THE PRIMARY NEAR-TERM CONCERN WILL BE PERIODS OF FZFG AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT KTRK. LIKE YESTERDAY, THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIMEFRAME FOR FOG WILL BE BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z BEFORE MIXING
OUT/INCREASING CIGS AND VIS. MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
SHOULD ALLOW FZFG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT BREEZES TODAY WITH INCREASING
LOW/MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOLE CONCERN WILL BE TERRAIN
OBSCURATION AND A 10% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KTRK-KTVL-KMMH THIS
AFTERNOON.
-SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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