275
FXUS65 KREV 161901
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1201 PM PDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY BEHIND THE FIRST OF TWO COLD
FRONTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.
* A SECONDARY, STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS, EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND VALLEY RAIN AND
FOOTHILL/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MID TO LATE SUNDAY.
* FREEZING TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING GIVE WAY
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RUNNING ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER WITH THE BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. RIDGE AND FOOTHILL WIND GUSTS WILL BE
IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE, VALLEY
WINDS WON'T BE QUITE AS BURLY, BUT PLAN ON GUSTS 20 MPH TO 35 MPH
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUNDAY:
* WINDS - STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER NOTICEABLE
DROP (10-15 DEGREES) IN TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS. WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH NORTHERLY
GUSTS SWITCHING TO NORTHEASTERLY AND WIDESPREAD 40-70% CHANCES
OF GUSTS 40+ MPH SUNDAY NIGHT. MONO, ALPINE AND MINERAL COUNTIES
WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH 45+
MPH. PLAN ON IMPACTS LIKE REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING
DUST, HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS FOR VEHICLES, BUMPY AVIATION
CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING ON AREA LAKES. SEE THE VARIOUS
LAKE WIND ADVISORIES AND WIND ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.
* TEMPERATURES - SIERRA COMMUNITIES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TO
NEAR 60 AND NORTHEASTERN CA AND WESTERN NV WILL RESIDE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. AS WE DIVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, PLAN ON WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SIERRA VALLEYS. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT COLDER VALLEYS
IN WESTERN NEVADA MAY DROP NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY
MORNING. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS. THE
LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN RENO, CARSON CITY
AND MINDEN AREAS IN THE 30S WITH A 15-20% CHANCE OF DROPPING
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.
* PRECIPITATION - RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION SIMULATIONS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION SIGNAL THAT IS ALSO FARTHER
WEST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. SHOWERS ARE PROJECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE (20-30% CHANCES) BEFORE SUNRISE
SUNDAY AND THEN TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD RENO/I80 CORRIDOR
(15%/20%) BETWEEN 10A-NOON, AND THEN INTO MONO, ALPINE AND
MINERAL COUNTIES (30-50%) FROM NOON-3P. FOR THE MOST PART, THE
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW FOR AREAS
ABOVE 5000 FEET AS THE FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE AREA.
MONDAY: THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES ITS SCHEDULED
PROGRAMMING FOR MID-MAY WITH 80S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 70S
TO 80S FOR NORTHEASTERN CA INTO THE SIERRA BY MIDWEEK.
SPOILER ALERT: ENSEMBLE CLUSTER PROJECTIONS ARE A MIXED BAG
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND FOR MEMORIAL DAY. LOOKS LIKE AN EVEN
SPLIT FOR SIMULATIONS BETWEEN CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE (LEANING TO
WARMER/DRIER) OR A TROUGH (TREND TO WET/COOL). HAVE OUTDOOR
PLANS? STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AND BE SURE TO HAVE A BACKUP (IF THE
WEATHER STINKS) PLAN.
-EDAN
AVIATION
* BRISK, NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS PERSIST TODAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.
* WINDS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH FL100 WINDS INCREASING TO 25-40KTS
FROM SUN 9Z TO MON 12Z. WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT FROM WEST,
SOUTHWEST EARLY SUN TO NORTH, NORTHEAST MON 0Z-MON 12Z. SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL CLIMB UP TO 45 KTS, PARTICULARLY NEAR KHTH.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS NEAR
KNFL, KLOL, KHTH.
* RAIN SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST (25-50%) EAST OF KLOL-KNFL
AND ALSO AT KMMH WITH SNOW CHANCES ABOVE 5000 FEET POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
-EDAN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY NVZ003.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
NVZ001.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY NVZ001.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT SUNDAY
NVZ004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
CAZ071.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY CAZ072.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY CAZ073.
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