009
FXUS65 KREV 191901
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1201 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MID TO
LATE WEEK.
* WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON TERRAIN BUILDUPS NEAR
THE SIERRA, WITH LOW-END THUNDER CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
* AFTERNOON WEST BREEZES CONTINUE THIS WEEK, WITH SOMEWHAT
STRONGER BREEZES POSSIBLE BY MEMORIAL DAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL BRING A STEADY WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS RUNNING AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY MID TO LATE WEEK. WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS WILL WARM INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S, WITH SIERRA COMMUNITIES MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO 70S. MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY, WITH LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DRIVE WEAK TERRAIN-DRIVEN INSTABILITY
NEAR THE SIERRA INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY STILL
LOOKS MORE LIKE AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS NEAR THE MONO COUNTY
CREST RATHER THAN ACTUAL SHOWERS OR STORMS, WITH THUNDER CHANCES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5%. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LOW-END SHOWER AND
THUNDER CHANCES EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE TAHOE BASIN, NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA, AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA, THOUGH PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW,
GENERALLY AROUND 5-15% AT BEST. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WOULD BE
ISOLATED, BRIEF, AND CAPABLE OF LITTLE RAINFALL.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND REMAINS WARM WITH LOW-END THUNDER CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY 5-10% FOR MOST AREAS AND LOCALLY NEAR 15% ALONG
FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM OR WETTING RAINFALL SETUP, BUT THOSE OUTDOORS SHOULD
STILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. AFTERNOON WEST BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY 15-25 MPH MOST DAYS, THEN INCREASING SOMEWHAT BY
MEMORIAL DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEVADA.
-JOHNSTON
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY OR PRECIPITATION IMPACTS AT THE MAIN TERMINALS. WINDS
REMAIN TYPICAL FOR LATE MAY, WITH AFTERNOON WEST TO SOUTHWEST
BREEZES MOST DAYS. PEAK GUSTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 15-25
KT.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST WEST
OF MMH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOW-END ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND NEAR THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA, AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA. TERMINAL IMPACT PROBABILITIES
REMAIN LOW, BUT ANY NEARBY BUILDUP COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF TERRAIN OBSCURATION NEAR THE SIERRA CREST.
-JOHNSTON
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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