268
FXUS65 KREV 200704
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1204 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MID TO
LATE WEEK.
* WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS
NEAR THE SIERRA, WITH LOW-END THUNDER CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
* AFTERNOON WEST BREEZES CONTINUE THIS WEEK, WITH SOMEWHAT
STRONGER BREEZES POSSIBLE BY MEMORIAL DAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
CHANCES TO HIT 90 IN W NV AND 80 IN THE TAHOE BASIN THIS WEEKEND
HAS QUICKLY DROPPED TO NEAR ZERO AS A SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE AREA.
MORE DETAILS ON THAT IN SUBSEQUENT PARAGRAPHS. FOR NOW, HIGHS WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 80S AND 70S FOR VALLEYS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
RESPECTIVELY. TYPICAL WEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
FOR THE SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT, WE'RE SEEING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
CUMULUS BUILDUPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY, CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. THURSDAY, THOSE BUILDUPS WILL MATURE INTO SHOWER
CHANCES, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN THROUGH MONO COUNTY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 5% AND CAPE VALUES BARELY REACH
50 J/KG. SOME PRECIP MAY FALL OUT OF THE SKY WITH THOSE JUICIER
CLOUDS (MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW INVERTED-V PROFILES, THOUGH), BUT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE IMPACTFUL
WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING INTO THE
TAHOE BASIN AND THE SIERRA FRONT. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 100-200
J/KG, WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 0.5-0.6". ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES
WITH THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE MAY BRING IMPACTS TO
RECREATION. REMEMBER, WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS MIXED AS WE LOOK TOWARDS THE WEEKEND; THEY
AGREE ON A SHORTWAVE, BUT NOT NECESSARILY THE PLACEMENT NOR THE
TIMING OF SAID SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING JUST HOW DEEP THE SHORTWAVE MAY GET. THIS
COULD BRING ADDITIONAL IMPACTS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, INCLUDING
GUSTIER WINDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CHECK BACK HERE FOR MORE
CONCRETE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER.
-GIRALTE
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY OR PRECIPITATION IMPACTS AT THE MAIN TERMINALS. WINDS
REMAIN TYPICAL FOR LATE MAY, WITH AFTERNOON WEST TO SOUTHWEST
BREEZES MOST DAYS. PEAK GUSTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 15-25
KT.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST WEST
OF MMH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOW-END ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND NEAR THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA, AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA. IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND POSSIBLE GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS.
-JOHNSTON/GIRALTE
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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